NFL Week 10 Betting Trends
As we enter the 10th week of the 2011 NFL regular season, all 32 teams have played at least half of their 16-game schedule, making it a good time to go back and take a look at the projected win totals for some of this season’s surprises as compared to their actual mid-season results.
Cashed-In on the Over
There is one team that has already made money this season for anyone smart enough to make a timely wager on it’s ‘over’ line. The Cincinnati Bengals were predicted to finish last in the AFC North with a win total line of 5.5 games after a dismal 4-12 record in 2010. Well last week’s 24-17 victory over Tennessee was their sixth of the season, putting them ‘over’ the total in just half their games. Everything from here on in is gravy for the Bengals.
Cashed-In on the Under
The minute that it was discovered that Peyton Manning would miss some significant time with a lingering neck injury, the Indianapolis Colts’ win total projection of 9.5 games was either pulled-off the board or seriously adjusted downward. While everyone expected things to be bad, no one saw a 0-9 start that has the Colts firmly in control of the ‘Andrew Luck No.1 Draft Pick Sweepstakes’.
Solid Bets on the Over
The most solid bet on this list is the San Francisco 49ers. First-year head coach Jim Harbaugh not only has this team thinking playoffs, but at seriously challenging Green Bay for the top spot in the NFC. The 49ers have the second-best record in the league at 7-1 and are just one win away from going ‘over’ on their win projection of 7.5 games. This should be a no-brainer considering they have five games left in their division against teams with a combined record of 5-19 on the year.
The Buffalo Bills enter the second half of the season at 5-3 and tied for first in the AFC East with New England and New York. They are also just one win away from being the next team to eclipse their win total projection of 5.5 games. This turnaround has been just as dramatic as any other team considering the Bills went 4-12 last season.
The next team that should be a winner on the ‘over’ line is the suddenly competitive Denver Broncos, who find themselves just one game out of first-place in the AFC West at 3-5. The projected win total for Denver was 5.5 games after winning just four games last season. While squeezing three wins out of the next eight games could still be a challenge, the Broncos have three games to play in a very weak division and a road game against Minnesota still on the schedule.
The Carolina Panthers were the worst team in the NFL last season at 2-14 and while they are off to an expected 2-6 start, this a team that has already played teams such as Green Bay, Chicago, and New Orleans extremely tough. With rookie-of-the-year candidate Cam Newton lighting things up for the Panthers, they have a legitimate chance to beat anyone over the course of their final eight games to leap over a projected win total of 4.5 games.
Solid Bets on the Under
The top two teams on this list are in the same boat. Both the St. Louis Rams and the Miami Dolphins opened the season with a projected win total of 7.5 games. Both teams have gotten off to incredibly slow starts and would need to go 7-1 in their next eight games just to get to 8-8 on the year. Given their current form and remaining schedule, it is safe to assume that the ‘under’ play on both teams will provide a nice little return on investment.
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