NFL Week 10 System Picks
As a general rule, NFL bettors tend to have short memories. Teams that do well one week are frequently bet on the following week, while teams who look extremely bad are often bet against the following week. This is precisely why most bettors lose money over the long haul.
The NFL was built to be a league of parity and teams that play above their heads one week are logical candidates to come back to earth the following week, just as teams that are blown out will frequently redeem themselves a bit the following week.
Teams which lose by 35 or more points are 47-29-6 (61.8%) the following week since the start of the 2000 season and have performed slightly better more recently, going 20-11-1 since the start of the 2009 season.
On the other side of the coin, there are home underdogs. There are usually three types of home underdogs. You have bad teams hosting an average team, a bad team hosting a good team and an average team hosting a good team. When a team wins a game as a home underdog, they generally are over-bet the following week and as a result haven’t fared too well against the spread.
Since the start of the 2008 season, teams coming off a game as a winning home underdog have gone just 67-93-6 (41.9%) in their next game. The system is doing even better this year, with winning home underdogs a paltry 4-14 against the number the next time they take the field.
There are three teams that came away with wins as home underdogs in their most recent games, the Miami Dolphins, the Cleveland Browns and the New York Jets. The Dolphins are favored by 2.5 at Tampa in the Monday night game, while the Browns are 7-point underdogs at Cincinnati and the Jets are 2.5-point road underdogs at Buffalo.
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