Point spread: Green Bay -7
The Green Bay Packers will try and run their record to a perfect 11-0 this Thursday afternoon in a special Thanksgiving Day showdown against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field. The kick-off is set for 12:30 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on Fox.
Green Bay extended its winning streak this season to 10 games with a closer-than-expected 35-26 win over Tampa Bay as a 14-point home favorite this past Sunday. It was just the third time this season that the Packers failed to cover against the spread and the total has now gone ‘over’ in seven of their 10 games.
Aaron Rodgers continues to put up MVP-worthy numbers and has now passed for 3,168 yards and a league-high 31 touchdowns. Green Bay’s only real weakness this season has been a defense that is ranked 30th in total yards allowed and giving-up an average of 21.2 points a game, which is ranked 14th.
Detroit stayed in the NFC North division race with a crucial 48-35 victory over Carolina last Sunday as a seven-point home favorite. The win raised its record on the year to 7-3 SU and 6-3-1 ATS. The total went way ‘over’ the 47.5-point line against the Panthers and has now gone ‘over’ in seven of its 10 games this season.
Matthew Stafford was able to shake-off a slow start against Carolina to end the day with 335 yards passing and five touchdown throws. He will need a 60-minute performance like this on Thursday to have any chance of upending Green Bay. The Lions’ defense has also been sketchy at times especially against the run where it is giving-up an average of 134.7 yards a game.
The Packers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall and 3-2 ATS on the road this season. The total has gone ‘over’ in its last four games.
The Lions are 2-3 ATS in its last five games overall and 3-2 ATS in five home games. The total has stayed ‘under’ in three of its last four games overall and in five of its last seven home games.
Head-to-head in this series, Green Bay has won 10 of the last 11 games SU and is 7-3 ATS in the last 10. The total has stayed ‘under’ in three of the last four meetings. It has never been wise to bet against the Lions on Thanksgiving no matter what their record was. The extra motivation attached to this year’s contest makes Detroit the solid play to at least keep things close enough to cover with the seven points.
The Free NFL Pick: Green Bay 34 Detroit 31
DJ is a freelance writer that concentrates on his true passion in life; the world of sports. He produces a number of articles each week for BangTheBook.com as well as a select group of other websites that specialize in providing the most up-to-date information for the sports gaming industry. His goal is to write insightful articles on a wide variety of sporting topics that can provide an edge to today's sophisticated online player.