NFL Week 14 System Picks
Regardless of the level of the game, football coaches universally complain about the same things; turnovers, penalties, missed opportunities and leaving the defense on the field too long. The Pee Wee coach at the local elementary school will gripe about these things, just as all 32 NFL coaches do.
When an NFL team has a game that makes their coach happy in that aspect, they often give him something to complain about the following week if they are underdogs. Going back to the start of the 2009 season, teams that had more than 34 minutes of possession and didn’t make a turnover in their previous game are just 26-34-1 (43.3%) against the spread the next time they take the field.
While a 56.7% winning percentage will add to your bankroll over time, what we’re really interested in is these games from a totals standpoint. These same teams that didn’t cover the point spread, find themselves playing in games that go over the total far more often than not, as these teams went 39-22 (63.9%) in totals.
The one game that falls into this category during the weekend is the Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are favored by seven points and the total is 42.5.
The Vikings are coming off their overtime win against Chicago, as they rallied with 10 fourth-quarter points behind Matt Cassel, who will get the start again this week in place of the injured Christian Ponder.
Somehow, the Vikings are still mathematically alive for a playoff spot this late in the season, just as they are still alive for the top overall pick in the draft, which says quite a bit about the lackluster NFC Central this season.
The early weather forecast is for some snow and sleet on game day, so be sure to follow the weather and adjust your wager accordingly if the game will be played in adverse weather.
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