Point spread: New England -6
The New England Patriots’ quest for the No.1 seed in the AFC takes it to Mile High Stadium this Sunday where it will face the Denver Broncos and possibly some divine intervention to try and notch its 11th win of the season. The game is slated to get underway at 4:15 p.m. (ET) and it will be broadcast nationally on CBS.
New England has not played its best football over the past few weeks but it has been good enough to extend it current winning streak to five games and raise its record to 10-3 straight-up (7-6 against the spread). It currently holds a two-game lead over New York in the AFC East and is tied with three other teams for the best record in the AFC. The total has gone ‘over’ in eight of its 13 games this year.
There has been no problem with Tom Brady and an offense that is averaging 424.4 total yards and 30.5 points a game. The problem has been a defense that gave-up 24 points to Indianapolis and 27 points to Washington in games that were way too close for comfort.
Denver’s story is starting to take on a life of its own after Tim Tebow orchestrated yet another fourth-quarter comeback to lead the team to its sixth-straight win. The Broncos are now in control of the AFC West at 8-5 SU (7-6 SU) with a one game lead over Oakland. The total has gone 7-6 in their 13 games.
Tebow’s late-game heroics aside, Denver has gotten things done behind a shutdown defense that has held its opponents to 15 or less points in five of the Broncos’ eight victories this season. It also does not hurt that they have the No.1-ranked rushing offense in the league.
The Patriots are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games, but just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as favorites. The total has gone ‘over’ in eight of their last 11 games as favorites on the road.
The Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall and a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games as underdogs. The total has gone ‘over’ in five of their last seven games as home underdogs.
Head-to-head, New England is 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to Denver and the home team in this series is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The total has stayed ‘under’ in three of the last four games between the two.
You know that Denver’s incredible run has to end sometime, but are you ready to bet its ends this Sunday at home? Give Tebow and Co. one more week to shine ATS as at the very least the Broncos keep this a three-point game.
The Free NFL Pick: New England 20 Denver 17
DJ is a freelance writer that concentrates on his true passion in life; the world of sports. He produces a number of articles each week for BangTheBook.com as well as a select group of other websites that specialize in providing the most up-to-date information for the sports gaming industry. His goal is to write insightful articles on a wide variety of sporting topics that can provide an edge to today's sophisticated online player.