Viet Bet Point spread: New Orleans -7
Total line: 53
In the final Monday night game of the season, the Atlanta Falcons will look to keep their slim NFC South title hopes alive when they invade the Superdome for a divisional tilt against the New Orleans Saints. Game time is slated for 8:30 p.m. (ET) and it will be broadcast nationally on ESPN.
Atlanta is still two games in back of the Saints with two games to play, but it has been able to match them win for win over the last two weeks to move to 9-5 straight-up and 6-7-1 against the spread. Even with a loss in this game, the Falcons still have the inside track for one of two wildcard spots in the playoffs. The total has stayed ‘under’ in nine of its 14 games this year.
The Falcons’ offense is starting pick up steam at just the right time of the year with 72 points combined in their last two games. They are now ranked ninth in the NFL in passing yards per game and 10th in scoring. Defensively, Atlanta is ranked ninth in both total yards and points allowed.
New Orleans is steamrolling its way towards the postseason with six straight wins including a 42-20 romp over Minnesota as a seven-point road favorite this past Sunday. It is now 11-3 SU and 10-4 ATS with the total going an even 7-7 in its 14 games this season.
The main reason for the Saints’ success during this run has been the elevated play of Drew Brees. Over the last six games he has thrown 18 touchdowns against just one interception. He leads the league with 4,780 yards passing and has 37 touchdowns on the year. The big difference with the offense this season is a rushing attack that is averaging 125.4 yards a game.
Atlanta is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games as a road underdog and 3-1-1 in its last five games against the NFC. The total has stayed ‘under’ in eight of its last 10 games overall.
New Orleans is 6-0 ATS in its last six games as a home favorite and 5-0 ATS in its last five games against the conference. The total has stayed ‘under’ in 13 of its last 16 games against the NFC South.
Head-to-head in this series, the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and the underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five games. The total has stayed ‘under’ in three of the last four games.
Despite the recent success of both team’s offenses, the past trends for both teams suggest a lower scoring game that makes the ‘under’ a solid play in this matchup. If playing a side, stick with the Falcons to keep things close enough to cover with the seven points.
The Free NFL Pick: New Orleans 24 Atlanta 23 so go under the Total
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