NFL Week 17 System Picks
If there’s one team that has fallen out of favor with bettors this season it’s the New England Patriots. Bill Belichick’s squad had earned its backers money every season since 2006, but that streak is going to come to an end this year, as the Patriots stand at 7-8 against the spread heading into their regular season finale against Buffalo, despite an 11-4 record straight up.
The Patriots have an excellent opportunity to at least finish the regular season with an 8-8 spread record as the Buffalo Bills bring plenty of red flags with them into the game.
The first red flag, which applies to all teams in Buffalo’s situation, is the underdog after a win as a home underdog angle. These teams are just 25-40-1 (38.5%) against the spread since the start of the 2010 season and have been especially dismal this year, going just 2-10 with the Bills owning two of the 10 losses.
The Bills are just 10-20 ATS following a home game since the start of the 2010 season and are just 2-12 against the number since the start of the 2009 season as a road underdog after a game as a home underdog and 5-14 as a road underdog after a game at home.
The Patriots are favored by nine points and New England has done well when favored by less than double digits, going 31-22-1 (58.5%) against the number since the beginning of the 2009 season and are 11-5-1 in that role the last two years.
The Patriots should be ready for this game, after winning the first meeting between the two teams 23-21, and they have a chance to catch Denver for the top spot in the AFC, although they would need an Oakland upset over the Broncos to make that happen.
New England has covered its last five regular season finales, as Belichick likes to enter the playoffs with a bit of momentum and the Patriots should be able to win this one by double digits.
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