NFL Week 2 Betting Review
Points continued to come fast and furiously in the NFL during week 2 action, as offenses continued to make big plays through air, apparently taking advantage of the rules that have almost taken defense and hitting out of the game.
Eleven of 16 games played OVER the totals in week 2, as games averaged 47 points per for the second straight week. So on the season NFL totals have leaned toward the OVERS by a lopsided 23-8 margin.
Linesmakers are taking notice, because for NFL week 3 BetOnline.com is lining five games with totals of 45 and above, and two games in the 50s. The Patriots-Bills total is posted at 51.5; Texans-Saints at 53; Chiefs-Chargers at 45; Falcons-Bucs at 45.5; and Packers-Bears at 45.5.
NFL home underdogs won two of six games outright over the weekend, and went 3-2 vs. the pointspreads. So home dogs are now 5-6 straight-up and 6-4 ATS on the season.
As of Tuesday morning BetOnline is listing six home underdogs for Week 3. Buffalo is getting nine points for its grudge match with New England; 0-2 Minnesota is getting 3.5 points from 2-0 Detroit; Oakland is getting 3.5 points from the Jets; Seattle is +3 at home vs. Arizona; Chicago is +3.5 at home for its NFC championship rematch vs. rival Green Bay; and the Manning-less Colts are getting 10.5 from visiting Pittsburgh.
The first two double-digit favorites of this season both won last weekend, but only split vs. the pointspreads. Pittsburgh, a 13.5-point favorite over Seattle, dominated the Seahawks in winning 24-0. But the Packers, favored by 10.5 points at Carolina, after overcoming an early 13-0 deficit to take a 30-16 lead late in the game, gave up a late score to cough up the cover.
Last year double-digit favorites went 19-4 SU but only 11-12 ATS.
This week BetOnline is listing two teams as double-digit chalk; the Chargers are favored by 14.5 points at home vs. Kansas City; and, as mentioned above, the Steelers are -10.5 at Indy.
One note about the injury-plagued Chiefs; they’ve scored seven and three points in their two games this season. But last year, there were five occasions in which a team scored in single digits two weeks in a row. The following week those teams averaged 29 PPG, and went 3-2 SU and 5-0 ATS.
Going inside the week 2 boxscores we found a few statistical anomalies, the most glaring of which involved the ground games. Teams that outrushed their opponents went 9-7 SU last week but just 5-10 ATS. Usually net rushing yardage is a very good indicator of who wins games and covers pointspreads. In week 1 teams that outgrounded their foes went 12-4 SU and 14-2 ATS. And last year those teams went 189-66 SU and 174-77 ATS (69%). But that trend didn’t help its betting proponents in week 2. However, we might expect things to revert back to normal this week.