NFL Week 2 System Picks
NFL bettors have a tendency to overreact slightly to what transpired the previous week and this has definitely been historically evident in Week No. 2. Teams that look impressive in opening week tend to be heavily bet the following week, while those teams who turned in less-than-impressive efforts are quickly bet against.
As a result, bettors can often find good value when wagering on those teams who didn’t inspire much confidence with their opening week play. Week No. 2 underdogs who lost opening week are 39-32-1 against the point spread (54.9%), which is a good start and will show a slight flat-bet profit. But if you apply several filters, you can boost your winning percentage a good deal.
If you were to look for only home underdogs in Week 2 who lost in opening week, your winning percentage would climb to 63.6%, as these teams have gone a solid 21-12 against the number. There are four teams that will qualify this week; the Buffalo Bills, Tampa Bay, Arizona and the New York Giants.
Not surprisingly, the public is betting heavily against three of the four teams, as New Orleans, Detroit and Denver are each popular wagers so far this week. As a result, bettors are getting the best of the line, as the Broncos opened as 3.5-point favorites and are now favored by 4.5, while the Cardinals opened as 1-point favorites over the Lions and Detroit is now a small favorite. Carolina opened as a 2.5-point favorite at Buffalo and the Panthers are now favored by three at the majority of sportsbooks, including Bookmaker and BetDSI.
There has been one situation that has been even more profitable and that involves finding two teams who lost on opening day and simply take the underdog in these meetings of winless teams. Doing so would have yielded an impressive 20-7-2 ATS record since the start of the 2005 season.
There are five teams that fall into this category, several of which looked absolutely dismal opening week, spearheaded by the Jacksonville Jaguars, who turned in the worst performance of all 32 teams in their 28-2 thumping at the hands of Kansas City. Oakland opened as a 3.5-point favorite and the line has been bet up to Oakland-5.5 and the number will continue to climb to 6 in all probability.
Buffalo also falls into this category, as do the Washington Redskins, Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers.
Don’t be afraid to back those teams who looked ugly in opening week, as they bounce back to get the money more often than not in week 2.