NFL Week 3 By the Numbers
NFL home dogs had another good day on Sunday, and are proving they’ve got some bite this season. And after two weeks of points galore NFL games trended back toward normal in week 3, as scoring was tempered
Home underdogs won four of eight games straight-up during week 3 action, and went 5-2-1 vs. the pointspreads. The Buffalo Bills were the most notable of the winning dogs, rallying from 21 points down to beat the vaunted Patriots 34-31. And that dogs record could have been even better, had the Minnesota Vikings, getting three points at home from the Detroit Lions, not blown another double-digit halftime lead.
For week 4 in the NFL BookMaker.eu is listing six more home dogs on its betting slate. The Jaguars are getting seven points from the visiting Saints; the Bengals are getting three points from the 3-0 Bills; the Chiefs are getting two points from the Vikings; the Seahawks are +5 vs. the Falcons; the Cardinals are +1.5 vs. the Giants; and the Raiders are getting 4.5 points from the Patriots.
After 23 of the first 32 games of this NFL season played over their posted totals, the over/unders trended back toward .500 last weekend, as 10 games stayed under their numbers. Week 3’s games averaged 41 points per, after games averaged a healthy 47 points during the first two weeks. On the season NFL totals are now 29-18.
For week 3 BookMaker is listing four games with O/Us of 46 or above. The Jags/Saints game is lined at 46.5; The Chargers and Dolphins are totaled at 46; the Packers/Broncos game is lined at 47; and the Patriots and Raiders O/U is a hefty 53.5.
Both NFL double-digit favorites won their games outright on Sunday, but both by just a field goal, failing to cover the pointspread. San Diego, at -14 over Kansas City, needed a late interception to hold off the Chiefs 20-17. And Pittsburgh, at 10.5, blew an early 10-point lead and needed a late FG to beat Indianapolis 23-20.
So on the season double-digit favorites are 4-0 SU but 1-3 ATS.
For this week BookMaker is listing one double-digit favorite; Green Bay is -12.5 at home over Denver.
Looking inside the week 3 boxscores, it was another rather strange weekend statistically. Teams that outgained their opponents went 8-8 SU and just 3-12-1 ATS; teams that outrushed foes went 7-9 SU and 7-8-1 ATS; and teams that won the time-of-possession battles went 9-7 SU and just 4-11-1 ATS.
Last year teams that outgained their opponents covered the spread 62% of the time; teams that outrushed opponents covered 69% of the time; and teams that won the ToP battles covered 66% of games.
Through the first three weeks of this season the top five rushing teams in the league – Oakland, Philly, Minnesota, Buffalo and Houston – are a collective 8-7 SU and 9-5-1 ATS. The worst five rushing teams – Denver, Seattle, San Francisco, Chicago and Tennessee – are 7-8 SU and 6-8-1 ATS.
The five best teams vs. the run so far – Green Bay, Dallas, San Francisco, Minnesota and Jacksonville – are a combined 8-7 SU and 7-5-3 ATS. And the five worst run defense teams – KC, Cleveland, Philly, the Jets and St. Louis – are 5-10 SU and 4-10-1 ATS.