NFL Week 3 Preseason System Picks
Week No. 3 of the NFL preseason is typically viewed as the final dress rehearsal for teams, who frequently play their starters up until halftime. That mentality hasn’t played out in the results, however, as larger favorites have been dismal against the spread. Favorites of six points or more are just 6-12 against the number in Week 3 since the start of the 2003 season.
These large favorites have fared even worse since 2008, going just 1-9 against the number and are just 5-5 straight up. Six of the 10 games have been decided by three points or less.
As of Tuesday morning, the Broncos were favored by 6.5 points over the Rams.
Several notable coaches are on dismal Week 3 runs, with the New York Giants’ Tom Coughlin on a 0-5-1 slide, while Bill Belichick’s Patriots have dropped their last five Week 3 games. Bettors may have caught on to Belichick’s lackluster approach to Week 3, as Detroit opened as 1-point favorites and were quickly bet up to two.
While home underdogs have traditionally been decent preseason wagers over the years, Week 3 has been the one exception, as home underdogs are 9-14-1 since 2008. Jacksonville, Oakland and Green Bay each fall into this category. The Packers opened as 1.5-point home dogs to Seattle and the Seahawks were bet up to 2-point favorites, while Chicago opened -3 at Oakland and are now 3.5-point favorites.
The number of days a team has between games does have a bit of an impact in certain situations. Teams playing with less than six days between games are 22-15-1 (59.5%) in Week 3, but underdogs have fared much better than favorites in this spot, as dogs are 13-6-1 ATS, while favorites are just 9-9.
Teams playing with nine days in between games have been decent bets as underdogs, going 8-3 since 2003, and Cleveland, Atlanta and San Diego as NFL Picks fall into this category. The other team playing with nine days between games, Philadelphia, is favored at Jacksonville and favorites are just 6-9-1.