At some point you’d think the waterfall of points in the NFL this season would wane. After a record-setting opening two weeks, you’d think scoring would trend back towards normal, right?
Apparently, not yet.
Thanks in part to a beautiful October Sunday of weather across the NFL landscape games averaged 50 points over the week 5 weekend, helping the NFL over/unders go 9-4.
So on the season the NFL totals have trended 47-28 toward the OVERS, as games have averaged a healthy 46 points per.
And it didn’t really matter how high the linesmakers posted those totals, they still went OVER. Four games had O/Us posted in the 50s over the weekend, and three of them played OVER; The Saints and Panthers went OVER 51, the Bills and Eagles went OVER 52.5, and the Patriots and Jets, thanks to a late New England field goal, played OVER 50.5. Only the Packers-Falcons game, with a total of 53.5, went UNDER, of the largest O/Us on the week 5 board.
For week 6 Bookmaker.eu is listing three games with totals in the 50s, and a couple more could get there by week’s end. The Green Bay-St. Louis total is 48; the New Orleans-Tampa Bay O/U is 49; Buffalo and the Giants are totaled at 50.5; Carolina and Atlanta at 51; and Dallas-New England at 54.5.
Home teams had a rough week 5, winning just six of the 13 games outright, although they managed to go 7-6 against the pointspreads. On the season NFL home teams are now 45-32 SU and 39-36 ATS.
The only double-digit favorite on the board in week 5 got beat outright, as the New York Giants at -10 fell at home to the Seattle Seahawks 36-25. New York got outrushed 145-69, allowed Seattle back-up quarterback Charlie Whitehurst to look like a first-stringer and saw Eli Manning picked off three times, the last of which went the other way for a game-clinching TD for the Seahawks.
New England had opened as a 10.5-point favorite over the Jets, but by game-time that spread had been bet down to eight and even seven at some places. And that game turned into a middler, as the Patriots won 30-21.
On the season NFL double-digit favorites are now 6-1 SU but 2-5 ATS.
This week Bookmaker is listing two double-digit favorites; the Packers are favored by 15 points over the visiting Rams, and the Steelers are listed at -12.5 over visiting Jacksonville.
Home underdogs came up a little short over the weekend, going 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS. With a little luck, though, they could have been better. The Jaguars, at +1, led Cincinnati late in the game before allowing a couple of late scores; Denver, at +3.5, rallied to grab the cover vs. San Diego, until the Chargers kicked a field goal with 30 seconds to play; and Atlanta, at +6, led Green Bay 14-0, and after coughing up that lead was driving for a late score until WR Roddy White botched a catch that resulted in a Packers interception.
Still, on the year, home dogs are 12-19 SU and above water at 16-13 ATS.
For this week Bookmaker is listing just one home underdog; the Buccaneers are getting four points from the visiting Saints.
Looking inside the week 5 boxscores we see that teams that outrushed their opponents went 9-4 SU and 10-3 ATS over the weekend. On the season teams that out-ground foes are now 49-28 SU and 45-30 ATS.
Through the first five weeks of this season the top rushing teams are the Eagles, Raiders, Vikings, Bills and Texans. The bottom five consists of the Giants, Seahawks, Colts, Jets and Titans.
Defensively, the top five teams against the run are the Cowboys, Ravens, Packers, 49ers and Vikings. And the bottom five vs. the run are the Bears, Bills, Eagles, Colts and Rams.