NFL Week 6 Betting Review
Those in the know figured that after the ridiculous amount of scoring through the first five weeks of this NFL season, things would begin to trend back toward normal. And that’s just what happened last weekend in the NFL, as scores stopped looking like basketball finals and a little more like what NFL bettors are used to.
Week 6 games averaged 40 points per over the weekend, a full 10 PPG lower than in week 5. With linesmakers goosing their totals to fight off the OVER bettors, sending eight games off with over/unders of 45 or more, the totals played 3-10.
For week 7 BookMaker.eu is listing three games with totals of 45 or above. The Saints/Colts game at the Superdome is lined at 48; the Falcons-Lions game at Ford Field is totaled at 47.5; and the Packers-Vikings game at the Metrodome is pegged at 47.
Look for NFL totals to continue to drop, as defenses adjust, colder weather begins to effect outdoor games and quarterbacks and skill players get nicked-up.
Home teams had a winning weekend, going 11-2 straight-up and 8-4-1 against the pointspreads. So on the season NFL home teams are now 56-34 SU and 47-40 ATS.
And favorites had their best week of the season, also going 11-2 SU and 8-4-1 ATS.
For the first time this NFL season teams coming off bye weeks played, and on the whole they didn’t fare too well. Of the six teams that had week 5 off just one, the Baltimore Ravens, won their week 6 game outright. The others – Cleveland, Dallas, Miami, St. Louis and Washington – all got beat. And those six teams went a collective 2-4 ATS.
This week six more teams – Arizona, Denver, Kansas City, San Diego, Seattle and Tennessee – are coming off their bye weeks. BookMaker is listing the Cardinals as 3.5-point home underdogs vs. Pittsburgh; the Broncos are at Miami; the Chiefs are three-point dogs at Oakland; the Chargers are at the Jets; the Seahawks are three-point dogs at Cleveland; and the Titans are three-point home favorites over Houston.
Last year teams coming off their bye weeks went 18-10 SU and 15-11-2 ATS. Those totals exclude the two games in which both teams had the previous week off.
The two double-digit favorites of week 6 won their games outright, and split vs. the spreads. So on the year NFL double-digit faves are now 8-1 SU but 3-6 ATS.
For this week BookMaker is listing one double-digit favorite; New Orleans is 14-point chalk over Indianapolis. But when they put out a number on the Dallas-St. Louis game, which is off the board at the moment because of the injury situation with Rams QB Sam Bradford, it will likely also be in double-digits.
Going inside the week 6 boxscores we see that teams that won the time-of-possession battles won 10 of 13 games outright and went 9-3-1 ATS. On the season teams that end up with the TOP advantage are 62-28 SU and 51-36 ATS (59%). Last year teams that held the TOP advantage went 66% ATS.
So far this year the top five TOP teams – San Diego, Dallas, Houston, New Orleans and Green Bay – are a combined 15-12-1 ATS. The bottom five TOP teams – Tennessee, KC, Denver, Seattle and Indianapolis – are 11-15 ATS.
This week the Texans play the Titans, and the Saints take on the Colts.
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