NFL Week 6 System Picks
There have been a number of systems that were developed around a team’s bye week in the NFL; nearly all of them have focused on how teams do against the point spread in various situations. But totals bettors have also been able to come up with several solid situations that have been profitable over the years.
There are two distinct tendencies for teams coming off of their bye when they are at home. Home underdogs are 33-19-1 to the over since 2003 and if you go back to the inception of the bye week in 1990, home underdogs off their bye with a total of at least 40 points are 45-25-2 (64.3) to the over.
The trends would point to an over in the Philadelphia at Tampa Bay game, where the total is currently sitting at 46, making it the first game where the Eagles have had a total in the 40s this season. The Buccaneers have gone under in all four games this season, so we are catching a slight break with the number.
Home favorites have traditionally gone the other way, as all games where the home team is favored have been 162-193-3 (54.4%) under, which is a slight money-making proposition. The key, however, is to look for those games that figure to be competitive, meaning the home team is a smaller favorite.
Over the years, teams favored by 5.5 points or less, have gone 63-106-1 to the under, which is a solid 62.7%. This week, the Minnesota Vikings fit the bill in their game against Carolina, as they are favored by 1.5 points and the total is 44. The Vikings are 4-0 to the over this season, while the Panthers are 1-3.
Washington and Pittsburgh are also coming off of their bye weeks, but there are no major trends supporting road underdogs, which have gone 107-120-3, yielding a slight tendency to the under.
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