NFL Week 8 System Picks
The NFL is about to hit a stretch where six teams have byes in each of the next two weeks, meaning there will be just 13 games each week instead of the 14 or 15 that we’ve had since teams began having a week off. Some bettors will be looking to play road favorites off a bye, which has been a profitable play historically. Since 2008, road favorites are 21-10 off of their bye week. While no teams fit the bill this week, there are several possibilities in each of the next two weeks.
Many bettors fail to look at the bye week and its impact on totals, but there are some excellent situations that have developed over the years. Since 2008, home teams playing before their bye week are 44-22-1 in totals when they are playing a non-divisional opponent. Obviously, the offense is trying to make an impression on their coaches heading into the break and they have been successful more often than not.
There are four games that fall into this category this week, and three of the games look like decent wagering opportunities. The lone exception is San Francisco at Jacksonville, as the Jaguars’ offense is so poor, they are always a bit risky as an over proposition. On the other hand, the Jags can also give up plenty of points and allow the 49ers to send the game over 40 themselves.
Dallas at Detroit figures to be a shootout and the total is 51, which is slightly on the high side, but these teams are both capable of putting 30 points on the scoreboard.
The next game is Washington at Denver and expect to see the Broncos offense back in full swing, while Robert Griffin III is starting to come around and could have a big game against a shaky Broncos defense. The oddsmakers are looking for a lot of scoring and the total is 57.5.
The final game is the over 45.5 in the Falcons at Arizona game and expect a decent game out of the inconsistent Carson Palmer.
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