March Madness Picks
Date/Time: Friday March 29, 2013 7:15 pm EST
College Basketball Odds from Sportsbook.AG
Point Spread: Louisville -10
Basketball Betting Game Trends
- Oregon is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
- Oregon is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Oregon is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games.
- Oregon is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
- Louisville is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games.
- Louisville is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Louisville is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
- Louisville is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
- Louisville is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
When the Oregon Ducks showed up as a number 12 seed on Selection Sunday, I was stunned. Oregon clearly deserved better, and you have to give them credit for how they have gone out and proved that. Dana Altman’s team didn’t throw a fit about where they were seeded; rather they just went about taking care of their business. Oregon has done a great job on neutral courts so far this year. The Ducks are 5-1 on neutral floors. Oregon was a 3.5 point underdog against Oklahoma State when they won by 13 and a 4.5 point underdog to St. Louis when they won by 17.
The Ducks are led by forward E.J. Singler, who averages 11.6 points per game. He is also tied for the team lead in assists. Jonathan Loyd and Dominic Artis are both very good at the point guard position for Oregon. Arsalan Kazemi is one of those guys whose importance can’t be measured on a stat sheet. Kazemi is a 6’7 versatile forward who does a little bit of everything for Oregon. The Ducks are at their best when running, but they’ll have to take care of the basketball if they are going to win this one.
The Louisville Cardinals have won 12 straight games. In fact, their last loss was the five overtime loss at Notre Dame on February 9. It’s possible that the five overtime heartbreaking loss was the best thing that could have happened to an extremely talented team like the Cardinals. Louisville seems to have picked up its intensity in every facet of the game over the past month. Louisville is an interesting team because they use a full court press and force tons of turnovers, but they also play terrific half court defense. This isn’t a feast or famine defense. Opponents are shooting just 39.1 percent and scoring only 57.6 points per game this season.
Peyton Siva and Russ Smith form a very good backcourt for Lousville. Smith has scored 50 points in the first two games of the NCAA Tournament. Smith has consistently been playing extremely well of late. He has put up 17 points or better in 8 of the team’s last 10 games. Siva is averaging 10.1 points per game this year, but he is the floor general for this team. When he isn’t on the floor, this team commits a lot more turnovers. Gorgui Dieng is one of the most talented shot blockers in the nation, and he should play a major role in this game.
Free Pick: Oregon +10
I’m not a fan of playing against the Louisville Cardinals right now, but with ten points I lean toward the Oregon Ducks in this one.
Louisville 71 Oregon 63
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