March 20, 2013

Oregon Ducks vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys Pick

March Madness Picks

Preview


#12 Oregon Ducks
vs.
#5 Oklahoma State Cowboys

Date/Time: Thursday March 21, 4:40 pm EST

Television: TNT

College Basketball Odds from Bookmaker

Point Spread: Oklahoma State -3.5

Total: 134.5

 

Basketball Betting Game Trends

Oregon Ducks

  • Ducks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600
  • Ducks are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games
  • Under is 10-2 in Ducks last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600
  • Over is 5-2 in Ducks last 7 overall
  • Under is 5-2 in Ducks last 7 neutral site games

Oklahoma State Cowboys

  • Oklahoma State is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
  • Oklahoma State is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma State’s last 5 games
  • Over is 4-1 in Oklahoma State last 5 overall
  • Under is 4-1 in Oklahoma State last 5 neutral site games
  • Oklahoma State are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss
  • Oklahoma State are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games

 

The Oregon Ducks won the PAC 12 Conference Tournament, but were given just a number 12 seed in the Midwest Region. They’ll face off against a very talented young Oklahoma State Cowboys team. Both of these teams have been inconsistent during the year, but they are both capable of playing very well. Could this be a number 12 over number 5 seed upset this year?

Game Overview:

Oregon was projected by most “bracketology” estimates to be a seven or eight seed. When the Ducks came out on the number 12 line, it really did end up being the single biggest snub from this year’s selection committee. The number 12 seed upset is a common one over a number five. In fact, the 12 seed is also 12-6 ATS in the last 18 games against a 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament. One of the things that makes this upset so common is that the number 12 seed often feels snubbed and they come in with something to prove. Oregon should be extremely motivated by that selection committee snub in this one.

Dominic Artis is a sensational freshman guard, but he still isn’t 100 percent healthy. He’ll split time in the backcourt with Jonathan Loyd. Oregon doesn’t have a dominant scorer, but what they do have is a tremendous amount of depth. Six guys average at least 8.5 points per game for the Ducks. Carlos Emory and Damyean Dotson have raised their game over the last couple weeks. E.J. Singler is the team’s best outside shooter, and he has improved his all around game. The Ducks typically do very well on the boards, so that is something to keep an eye on.

Oklahoma State has a couple major impact freshmen. Marcus Smart is one of the top ten players in the nation as a freshman at point guard for the Cowboys. Smart averages 15 points, five boards, four assists, and three steals per game. Phil Forte has been friends for a long time with Smart, and he is a 91% free throw shooter who averages 10 points per game as a freshman. Le’Bryan Nash is a sensational sophomore for the Cowboys, and he is fully capable of taking over games. Junior Markel Brown is kind of the team’s veteran leader, and he averages 15.2 points per game.

The Cowboys have been a surprisingly good defensive team for a team with so much youth. Opponents are shooting just 39 percent from the floor against Oklahoma State. Guys like Smart, Nash, and Brown all have lots of length and athleticism; and it can be very tough to shoot over them. Oklahoma State is strong on the offensive glass, but they do allow a lot of second chance opportunities for opponents.

Free Pick: Oregon +3.5

The Ducks have the more veteran team, and they’ll be ticked off and ready to prove someone wrong here. This one is much closer to home for Oregon than Oklahoma State, and that could be the difference. I like the underdog in what should be a very close game.

Oklahoma State 68 Oregon 67

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Kyle Hunter

is full-timesports writer and sports handicapper. You simply won’t find someone who loves sports more than Kyle. Kyle considers college football and college basketball his two favorite sports. Kyle has earned many accolades for his highly successful handicapping, and he writes full-time for many top sports websites. Keep an eye out for high quality free sports analysis from Kyle!

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