Date/Time: September 28th, 8:00 PM ET
Spread: Ohio State -7
Here at Bang the Book, we are always keeping our eyes open for the best games to bet on each and every week. Of all of the games on the Week 5 docket, the one we are zeroing in on is the game where the Ohio State Buckeyes host the Wisconsin Badgers at 8:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, September 28th.
Last week, we only just missed out on moving to a perfect 4-0 ATS in our college best bets, and when you add in the NFL, we are a healthy 5-2 ATS in our first seven plays of the week. Sometimes, it’s really difficult to get it down to just one play, and sometimes, you just have to go with your gut.
Our eyes are telling us that the Badgers just aren’t all that good. Yes, they rank 12th in the land in total offense at 547.8 yards per game, and yes, they rank 6th in the land in total defense at 243.2 yards per game, but look at their schedule! The only team that they have played of any note whatsoever is the Arizona State Sun Devils. Say what you want about that game perhaps should have being won, but there were plenty of other chances to win that game aside from just that last snafu with the refs and the clock.
Even in that game, RB Marion Grice had four TDs on the ground, and QB Taylor Kelly threw for 352 yards. It’s proof that this Wisconsin defense can be had by the right offense.
This is the second time that this team has to go on the road, and it is the first time that it is going to be in front of over 80,000 people screaming at the tops of their lungs for a team that hasn’t been beaten in a game since 2011.
Oh sure, Ohio State hasn’t looked all that remarkable this season. The team is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS, but few are impressed with the 54 points combined that were allowed in two games against the Cal Golden Bears and the Buffalo Bulls. The 76-0 win over the Florida A&M Rattlers last week was no big deal one way or the other, and it is definitely fair to show some skepticism about the fact that QB Braxton Miller is going to be playing for the first time in three weeks in this game.
However, we have a feeling that Miller was really only being held back because his team was playing against Cal and Florida A&M in those outings. Needless to say, that’s not exactly the likes of playing against Wisconsin.
The one thing that does scare us is the fact that Ohio State really couldn’t move the ball on the ground last year when these two teams met up in November. OSU only had a total of 237 yards in a game that was decided in overtime. The offense went nearly three full quarters of game time without scoring a single point. That game though, was in Camp Randall, and it came against a Wisconsin team that we think was a lot better than the one that is on the field this year.
The Buckeyes are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games, and they are 48-20-1 ATS in their last 69 games played in conference play. They’re 41-18-1 ATS in their last 60 against teams with winning records and 40-18-1 ATS in their last 59 overall.
Wisconsin is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine games following a game in which it put up 40 or more points, and it is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games following wins of 20+ points. It’s just not a resilient team that can continue to put its foot on the gas pedal week after week.
What really gets us though, is that the Badgers are just 1-5 ATS in the last six in this series. Sure, the argument could be made that they deserved at least a cover last year, if not an outright victory, but they just weren’t able to get the job done. We only have to lay a single touchdown in this game, and we think that isn’t nearly enough. Ohio State won’t make this one easy, but Miller will win this game by at least two scores to essentially already wrap up a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game in December.
Week 5 College Football Pick of the Week: Ohio State Buckeyes -7
Andrew Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.