BetAnySports.com is back with another great set of NFL betting props for the NFL Network’s Thursday Night Football. Join us for the Tennessee Titans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers prop picks for this AFC duel at LP Field.
Ben Roethlisberger Over 1.5 Touchdown Passes (-140): Are the oddsmakers really paying attention to the fact that the Titans defense stinks? Tennessee is allowing 279.6 passing yards per game, and it has conceded just a boatload of touchdowns through the air this year. Asking Big Ben, who does have three out of four games this year with at least two scores, to get to a pair isn’t unreasonable, and it will certainly happen more often than not. In this situation though, it really feels like it should happen a heck of a lot more often than not. Remember that Roethlisberger should have nine TD passes this year in four games if the ball had gone forward that he threw to RB Rashard Mendenhall for a touchdown last week against the Philadelphia Eagles. This is a badly underpriced prop and one that you need to get on right now.
Rashard Mendenhall Under 75.5 Rushing Yards: Let’s not get all that excited over the fact that Mendenhall rushed for 81 yards last week. Thirteen of those yards came on that aforementioned swing pass that the official scorer ruled went backwards, and had that been ruled the other way, Mendenhall would have had 13 carries for 68 yards, and this prop would have been significantly lower. Remember that RB Isaac Redman still carried the ball 13 times in the win, and he got a lot of the late carries when the team was out in front. The possibility is definitely still there that Mendenhall could get to this 76 yards needed to beat us, but we would like to see him prove that he can carry the ball 18-20 times in a game first before we take that leap, even against a defense that is this bad.
Heath Miller To Score a Touchdown (+140): The Titans have allowed a ton of touchdowns to tight ends this year. TE Kyle Rudolph scored last week against the Vikings, TE Owen Daniels and TE James Casey for the Texans, TE Dante Rosario scored three times for the Chargers, and both TE Rob Gronkowski and TE Aaron Hernandez found the end zone in Week 1 against the Patriots. That’s a heck of a lot of receiving touchdowns to tight ends. Offensive Coordinator Todd Haley has made Miller a big time part of the passing game from the get go this year, and he has 19 receptions, 170 yards, and four scores, including finding the end zone once in three of the first four games of the year. All three games that Big Ben has thrown a touchdown in, Miller has caught a touchdown. This seems like quite the easy play for us, and it probably should be the favored situation.
Chris Johnson Under 16.5 Rushing Attempts: Remember that CJ2K has just 210 yards on the ground this year, and 141 of those came in one game against the Texans. Aside from that, Johnson has rushed the ball 11 times, eight times, 14 times, and 15 times. Asking him to run for 17 against the Steelers doesn’t make a whole heck of a lot of sense, knowing that the weakness of this defense now is going over the top, attacking the corners and the safety spot that is vacated by the injured S Troy Polamalu. The insinuation here is that Tennessee is going to stay in this game for quite some time, and even if that turns out to be the case, we point to those 14 carries and 24 yards against the Lions back in Week 3 as proof that more often than not, Johnson is going to get fewer than 17 touches in a game.
Kenny Britt Over 2.5 Receptions: A good percentage play here on Britt if you believe that he is truly healthy. He might still be a week or so away from being a regular in the lineup again, but when Britt is going full bore, he is going to get 10+ targets on a regular basis. Britt really has only played in one game fully healthy this year, and that was the game against the Lions in which he had 11 targets, six receptions, and 55 yards. QB Matt Hasselbeck has a bit of a rapport built up with Britt, as the two played together when the former member of the Rutgers Scarlet Knights had his big year, scoring nine touchdowns in just 12 games played. We think that Hasselbeck will look Britt’s way quite a bit tonight.
Andrew Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.