The PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass

Picturesque Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida will be the site of this week’s PGA Tour event, the Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass. Defending champion Tiger Woods will miss the event as he continues his recovery from back surgery, but his absence opens the door for somebody else. Players will be aiming for a chunk of the $10 million purse, tied with the PGA Championship for the largest purse for any PGA Tour event. Bovada.lv is the home for all of your golf odds with a long list of matchups, props, and futures for this week’s event.

The magic number in each of the last three years has been 13-under, as Woods, Matt Kuchar, and K.J. Choi each won with that score. Tim Clark carded a 16-under in 2010, the lowest score to win this event since Davis Love III’s 17-under in 2003. Hazards dot the course just about everywhere, so consistency and accuracy will be the keys to victory this week at TPC Sawgrass.

Here are some golfers who have a strong shot to win this week:

1. Matt Kuchar (18/1) – The 2012 Players Championship winner has shown plenty of consistency over the last few events. Kuchar has eight top 10 finishes in his 11 starts and has the opportunity to overtake Tiger Woods for the #1 ranking in the world with a win. In his last four starts, including the Masters, Kuchar has finished no worse than a tie for fifth. Kuchar is in the top 30 in driving accuracy and just outside the top 30 in greens in regulation.

2. K.J Choi (100/1) – Again, we’ll look to a past winner to take home the championship with 2011 winner K.J Choi. The Players’ Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass is a different kind of animal than most guys are used to and that eliminates a lot of players from contention. Those who know what it takes to win are worth looking at. Choi isn’t striking the ball all that well right now, but he could get an edge from a course that isn’t overwhelming for him like it will be for some of the competitors.

3. Steve Stricker (80/1) – The frustrations of TPC Sawgrass should be no match for the veteran experience of Steve Stricker. Stricker took home a tie for 37th in this event last year because of a final round 76. In 2011, Stricker finished 12th with an 8-under and, again, a final round 73 that was not up to par. If Stricker can navigate the first three days, he could be at an advantage.

 

Long shot of the week:

John Merrick (200/1) – John Merrick’s results on tour don’t match up with his statistics. Merrick is 19th in driving accuracy and eighth in greens in regulation percentage. The flatstick has really failed Merrick as he ranks 194th in putting. A little bit of luck and Merrick could be right in the hunt at TPC Sawgrass because of the need to be accurate with tee shots and approaches.

 

Props of the week:

1. Matt Kuchar Top-10 Finish: Yes +165 – Matt Kuchar is playing so well right now that he has a great chance to win this tournament. With this course’s ability to eat up a lot of talented players, Kuchar’s track record and current stretch of play make this a very valuable prop bet.

2. Brandt Snedeker v Harris English v Jason Dufner: English +175 – Brandt Snedeker has gotten off to a rough start this season because a rib injury that seems to be affecting parts of his game. Dufner has battled various respiratory ailments that have kept him from finding a rhythm in his game. In 18 rounds on the Stadium course, Dufner has broken 70 just four times. English, meanwhile, shot a 3-under last year at the Players Championship and is third in greens in regulation percentage despite hitting less than 60 percent of fairways. His recoverability is a huge asset at this course.

The Players Championship – Outright Winner Odds

Rory McIlroy                      12/1

Adam Scott                         14/1

Matt Kuchar                       18/1

Sergio Garcia                      20/1

Justin Rose                         22/1

Luke Donald                       22/1

Henrik Stenson                 25/1

Phil Mickelson                   25/1

Bubba Watson                  28/1

Jim Furyk                             28/1

Jordan Spieth                    28/1

Lee Westwood                 33/1

Zach Johnson                     33/1

Dustin Johnson                 40/1

Charl Schwartzel               50/1

Graham Delaet                 50/1

Jimmy Walker                    50/1

Keegan Bradley                50/1

Rickie Fowler                     50/1

J.B.  Holmes                        50/1

Harris English                     55/1

Brandt Snedeker              66/1

Graeme McDowell          66/1

Hunter Mahan                  66/1

Ian Poulter                          66/1

Jason Dufner                     66/1

Ken Duke                            66/1

Kevin Na                              66/1

Martin Laird                        66/1

Patrick Reed                       66/1

Ryan Moore                       66/1

Webb Simpson                 66/1

Bill Haas                                80/1

Hideki Matsuyama          80/1

Kevin Streelman               80/1

Louis Oosthuizen             80/1

Martin Kaymer                  80/1

Ryan Palmer                       80/1

Steve Stricker                    80/1

Brendon De Jonge           100/1

Cameron Tringale            100/1

Charley Hoffman              100/1

Chris Kirk                             100/1

Chris Stroud                       100/1

Francesco Molinari          100/1

Fredrik Jacobson              100/1

Gary Woodland                100/1

Jamie Donaldson              100/1

John Senden                      100/1

Jonas Blixt                           100/1

K.J. Choi                               100/1

Kenny Perry                       100/1

Kevin Stadler                     100/1

Marc Leishman                 100/1

Matt Every                          100/1

Nick Watney                      100/1

Rory Sabbatini                   100/1

Seung-yul Noh                  100/1

Billy Horschel                     125/1

Bo Van Pelt                         125/1

Charles Howell III             125/1

Chesson Hadley                125/1

Daniel Summerhays        125/1

Jason Kokrak                      125/1

Jonathan Byrd                   125/1

Joost Luiten                        125/1

Matt Jones                         125/1

Pat Perez                             125/1

Russell Henley                   125/1

Russell Knox                       125/1

Thomas Bjorn                    125/1

Angel Cabrera                   150/1

Ben Crane                           150/1

Boo Weekley                     150/1

Brian Harman                     150/1

Brian Stuard                       150/1

Carl Pettersson                 150/1

Erik Compton                     150/1

Ernie Els                               150/1

Geoff Ogilvy                       150/1

George Mcneill                 150/1

Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano150/1

Jeff Overton                      150/1

Jerry Kelly                           150/1

John Huh                             150/1

Kevin Chappell                  150/1

Martin Flores                     150/1

Michael Thompson         150/1

Retief Goosen                   150/1

Robert Garrigus                150/1

Roberto Castro                 150/1

Ryo Ishikawa                      150/1

Stewart Cink                      150/1

Will Mackenzie                  150/1

Aaron Baddeley                200/1

Brendan Steele                 200/1

Bryce Molder                     200/1

David Hearn                       200/1

David Lingmerth               200/1

Jason Bohn                         200/1

John Merrick                      200/1

Kyle Stanley                       200/1

Luke Guthrie                      200/1

Morgan Hoffman             200/1

Nicholas Thompson        200/1

Richard Lee                         200/1

Sang-Moon Bae                200/1

Scott Brown                       200/1

Scott Langley                     200/1

Shawn Stefani                   200/1

Stephen Gallacher           200/1

Thongchai Jaidee             200/1

Tim Clark                              200/1

William Mcgirt                   200/1

Andres Romero                250/1

Brian Davis                          250/1

Brian Gay                             250/1

Camilo Villegas                  250/1

Greg Chalmers                  250/1

Jeff Maggert                      250/1

John Rollins                        250/1

Justin Hicks                         250/1

Lucas Glover                      250/1

Mark Wilson                       250/1

Michael Putnam               250/1

Scott Stallings                    250/1

Steven Bowditch              250/1

Stuart Appleby                  250/1

Yong-Eun Yang                  250/1

Charlie Wi                            300/1

D.A. Points                          300/1

James Driscoll                    300/1

James Hahn                        300/1

Josh Teater                         300/1

Justin Leonard                   300/1

Derek Ernst                        350/1

Ted Potter Jr.                     350/1

Charlie Beljan                    400/1

John Peterson                   400/1

Briny Baird                          500/1

D.H. Lee                               500/1

Darren Clarke                    500/1

J.J. Henry                             500/1

Johnson Wagner              500/1

Woody Austin                   500/1

Adam Burke

Adam Burke

Adam Burke is a freelance writer and amateur handicapper with a knack for finding value through matchup analysis and a deep understanding of the sports betting market. His main area of expertise is baseball, with a background in sabermetrics and advanced statistics. He is the host of The Gridiron Gambling Report and our college football and college basketball BangTheBook.com podcasts on the BlogTalkRadio Network.