Providence Friars vs. Dayton Flyers NCAA Tournament Pick & Preview

providence dayton march madnessThe No.11-seeded Dayton Flyers play the No.6-seeded Providence Friars in the second round of the NCAA tournament at Nationwide Arena. The game gets underway at 9:57 pm ET on Friday, Mar. 20 and will air on truTV.

The Friars lost a winnable game to Villanova 74-57 in the semifinals of the Big East tournament. LaDontae Henton played a key role, recording 20 points and nine assists to notch his sixth double-double this season. The Flyers, meanwhile, are coming off a 56-55 win over Boise State in the first round. Jordan Sibert led the team in scoring with 12 points on 5-for-10 shooting.

Over the last five games, Sibert has been on fire for the Flyers. During that stretch, he has averaged 18.6 points, 2.8 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 2.4 steals, and 2.4 three-pointers.

The odds are even for this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is presently unavailable. The Friars enter the game with records of 21-11-1 Straight Up (SU) and 16-10-3 Against The Spread (ATS). An area where the Friars are particularly strong is shot blocking, where they average 4.7 blocks per game, 44th in Division I.

Across the court, Dayton has a SU record of 26-8 and an ATS record of 16-16. The Flyers are getting to the foul line at a high rate. Their 510 free throws made ranks 32nd in Division I. Dayton’s three-point defense is one of the top in the country, with opponents shooting only .306 from the three.

This game marks the first time these teams will play this season. The last time Providence and Dayton played, Dayton won, taking the head-to-head record to an even 0-0 SU.

Predictions: SU Winner – PC, ATS Winner – PC

Notes

The Providence Friars rank 96th for their offensive rating of 106.2. The Dayton Flyers have a defensive rating of 160.5 (ranked 49th).

The Providence Friars average 66.4 possessions and 1.062 points per possession in games this season. The Dayton Flyers average fewer possessions with 64.8, as well as fewer points per possession with 1.056.

The Dayton Flyers average an effective field goal percentage of 53.0% this season. The Providence Friars have split their games this season (5-5) when opponents have an eFG% of 53.0% or greater.

On average, Providence attempts 15.6 three pointers and Dayton attempts 18.7. In games where they have 20 or more three point attempts, the Providence Friars are 4-3 while the Dayton Flyers have a formidable 11-3 record.

Providence ranks 69th in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.19, while Dayton ranks 68th with an A/TO of 1.19.

Providence, the 100th-ranked team in rebounding, register an average of 35.8 rebounds per game. Dayton does worse, ranked 287th with 31.9.

The Providence Friars make an average of 7.3 steals per game. The Dayton Flyers are 4-5 when they allow 7 or more steals.

Aaron Ryan

Andrew Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.