Point spread: San Diego State -4.5
The San Diego State Aztecs head into hostile territory this Saturday night as a road favorite to square-off against the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns at the Superdome in this year’s New Orleans Bowl. The kick-off for this Mountain West-Sun Belt clash is set for 9 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on ESPN.
San Diego State’s 35-28 victory over Fresno State as a 7.5-point home favorite in its season finale capped-off an 8-4 straight-up (5-7 against the spread) campaign overall and a 4-3 SU record in conference play. The total went an even 6-6 in its 12 games this year.
The Aztecs ramped things up on offense in their final three games of the season with a total of 101 points. They posted 29.5 points a game this season primarily around a rushing attack that has averaged 194.2 yards a game this season.
UL Lafayette’s season ended on a sour note with losses in its final two games to Arkansas State and Arizona to finish 8-4 both SU and ATS, although it did cover as a double-digit road underdog in both. The Ragin’ Cajuns finished third in the Sun Belt with 6-2 SU record in conference play and the total went ‘over’ in eight of their 12 games this year.
This is another team that can put points on the board with an average of 32.3 a game. UL Lafayette was held to less than 30 points just three times all season long, but its defense was ranked 83rd in the nation in points allowed; giving-up an average of 29.8 points a game.
The Aztecs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games followings an ATS loss, but 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite. The total stayed ‘under’ in five of their last seven non-conference games.
The Ragin’ Cajuns are 5-0 ATS in their last five non-conference games and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog. The total has gone ‘over’ in seven of their last eight games played outside the Sun Belt Conference.
This has the makings of a highly entertaining game between two teams that know how to light-up a scoreboard. Given that this is basically a home game for UL Lafayette, take the Ragin’ Cajuns and the 4.5 points in this one.
The New Orleans Bowl Free Pick: San Diego State 35 UL Lafayette 33
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