December 2, 2013

Saints vs. Seahawks Monday Night Football Prop Picks

Bet at 5dimesIt’s Monday night, and that means that there is just one more game with which to handicap on the NFL card. The Seattle Seahawks will play host to the New Orleans Saints in this edition of Monday Night Football, and we have some great MNF props covered so you can find an alternative way to beat the NFL betting lines in this one.

Drew Brees Over 289.5 Passing Yards – The bottom line here for the Saints is that they have to be able to throw the football against the banged up Seattle secondary if they are going to have a shot at winning. There weren’t any problems doing so against Seattle two seasons ago when these two teams met in the playoffs, and that’s when Seattle had a healthy secondary and one of the better defenses in the league. Brees had four straight games of at least 300 yards before throwing for just 278 last week against the Atlanta Falcons, and we have every expectation in the world that he is going to get to 300 once again in this one.

Darren Sproles Over 35.5 Receiving Yards – Sproles wasn’t around when these two teams last played against each other, but RB Julius Jones and RB Reggie Bush both were. Those two men only had 71 yards on 20 carries between them, but they also had 11 receptions for 99 yards between them as well. It’s no secret that checking the ball down is something which the New Orleans offense does quite a bit, and though Sproles only has 48 receptions for 463 yards this year, he can take any given dump pass for at least 36 yards in some open field. We have to think that he is going to get the ball in his hands at least five or six times tonight, and if that turns out to be the case, there has to be at least a 60% chance that Sproles ends up with at least 36 receiving yards.

Pierre Thomas Over 32.5 Receiving Yards – See Above.

Russell Wilson Over 225.5 Passing Yards – When you look and see that the New Orleans defense ranks third in the league at 198.0 passing yards per game allowed, you have to be impressed. We though, are anything but. Look at what the Saints have played this year. They have already taken on the Atlanta Falcons twice, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with QB Josh Freeman, the Arizona Cardinals before WR Michael Floyd emerged as a legitimate receiving threat, the Miami Dolphins before they ever had a pulse offensively, the Buffalo Bills with QB Thad Lewis under center, the hapless New York Jets, and the worst passing game in the league in that of the San Francisco 49ers. Sure, New Orleans also shut down QB Tony Romo and the Dallas Cowboys, but this is a much different task, especially on the road, and especially up in Seattle. Wilson has thrown for 230 and 287 yards in his last two games, and we think that he reaches at least 230 in this one.

Marshawn Lynch Under 90.5 Rushing Yards – It’s a rogue thought, but Lynch might really struggle in this game. When you look back at that playoff game when Lynch went “Beast Mode” on the Saints, you must remember that most of his damage was done on that one run which will be shown at least five times on Monday. Aside from that, Lynch had 18 carries for 64 yards. That’s about what we expect out of him in this one, knowing that New Orleans has done a good job bottling up running backs and not letting them rumble for tons of yards for the most part this season.

Total Touchdowns Over 5 – Sure, this makes it seem like the game is going to go past the ‘total’, but we have a hard time believing that the Saints are going to be involved in a game against a team with an awfully thin secondary with only four touchdowns hitting the board. The Seahawks still play awfully good defense, and they might end up doing a remarkable job when push comes to shove against Brees and his attack, but we just don’t see it happening. This almost has to be a game which is played into the 50s, and if that’s the case, there has to be at least six touchdowns scored.

Total Quarterback Sacks Under 5.5 – The New Orleans offensive line has done a great job this year protecting Brees, and that should continue in this one. With a weakened Seattle secondary, Brees should be able to get the ball out of his hands in a hurry. If that’s the case, the Seahawks will clearly be flustered up front. On the other side of the ball, a patchwork offensive line has been able to keep Wilson protected. With most of the linemen now back in the saddle we expected at the start of the year, the Seahawks are now much better equipped to handle the New Orleans pass rush. DE Cameron Jordan and the Saints have a great pass rush as it is, but they aren’t going to be able to get to Wilson all that often. Asking for six sacks between these two teams is a whole heck of a lot.

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Adam Markowitz

is a staff writer living in the Orlando area. He has covered NFL, MLB, college football, CFL, AFL, NBA, college basketball, NASCAR, golf, tennis, and the NHL for a number of various outlets in his career, and he has been published by a number of different media outlets, including the Orlando Sentinel and the Wall Street Journal.

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