The NFL playoffs continue this week, and the San Francisco 49ers and the Atlanta Falcons are set to do battle. Check out some of the NFL prop bets that are available at BetDSI, as we analyze the betting lines and see which sides to play in the NFC Championship Game.
Colin Kaepernick Completions Over 17 (-115): Even in a game that proved to be a blowout, Kaepernick completed 17 passes against the Green Bay Packers. Over the course of his last six starts, Kaepernick has completed at least 17 passes four times, and he hasn’t had a game that he started with fewer than 14 completions. A lot of these games have been odd for the Niners, and Kaepernick hasn’t really had to do a lot in most of those efforts. Case in point, he only put the ball in the air twice in the entire fourth quarter of the game against the Packers. Both passes were completed, but it is a wonder how many he would have completed had San Fran been involved in a truly meaningful game. Six? Eight? Twelve? Who knows? What we do know is that Head Coach Jim Harbaugh isn’t afraid to let Kaepernick throw it either in the pocket or on the move, and we think that the end result is going to be at least 18 completed passes.
Colin Kaepernick Under 7.5 Rushing Attempts (+100): Kaepernick rumbled for an NFL record 181 yards last week against the Packers, but this week, he is going to be going against a defense that really did a nice job of limiting the amount of running room that QB Russell Wilson really had. Sure, Wilson did a lot of scrambling in and out of the pocket, but he only logged eight carries. Kaepernick is going to be watched even more closely than Wilson was, and though he might bust a long one here or there, we really don’t think that he is going to get all that many opportunities to just run and take off when push comes to shove.
Vernon Davis Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-115): Here’s the trickiest play of the day in the NFC Championship Game. We wish that TE Zach Miller had turned out with a worse day than he had, as he logged over 140 yards and eight receptions last week against the Atlanta defense. The truth of the matter is that tight ends have absolutely burned the Falcons over the course of the last several weeks, as five tight ends since the end of November have reached at least 50 receiving yards. Davis isn’t afraid to work up the seams of the field, and Harbaugh knows how to get the ball in his hands. That being said, this number is insanely low due to the fact that Davis just hasn’t been a big factor in this offense by any stretch of the imagination. We think that this is going to be a great opportunity for Davis to bust out and have five or six catches for 80 yards or so in this game. Any Vernon Davis ‘over’ you can find is a good one.
Matt Ryan Under 280.5 Passing Yards (-105): Um… Why? Matty Ice threw for 250 yards last week against the Seahawks, and that was the first time in his playoff career that he threw for more than 200 yards in a game in four tries. Sure, Ryan threw for over 4,700 yards this year, and yes, he has arguably the best set of receivers that the 49ers have played against all season long. Last week, QB Aaron Rodgers, who has a great playoff pedigree and has a fantastic set of receivers, threw for just 257 yards in spite of the fact that he completed 26 passes. It’s just going to be really hard to get the ball down the field against what proved to be the fourth best passing game in the league this year, allowing just a shade over 200 yards per game. If Ryan gets to 280 yards in this one, it will be a shock to us.
Matt Ryan To Throw an Interception (-180): Last time around, we asked why. Now we’re going to ask why not. Ryan has been picked off in all four of his playoff games in his career, including getting intercepted twice by the Seahawks last week. There has to be at least a 65-70% chance, if not significantly more than that, that Ryan gets intercepted, and -180 is just far too low of a price.
Michael Turner Under 1 Reception (+100): Sure, we know. Any one given pass play to Turner could ultimately be the one that ensures that we don’t win, and a second ensures that we lose. However, last week, he didn’t receive a single target, let alone a reception from Ryan, and he had seven games this year in which he didn’t catch a pass against five in which he had more than one reception. Those are awfully good odds to bank upon, especially since RB Jacquizz Rodgers is finding himself on the field more and more often as a pass catching running back out of the backfield. Turner just doesn’t have that role. Don’t get suckered into this one.
Tony Gonzalez Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-125): Good ol’ Gonzo finally won his first ever playoff game last week, and in that game, he scored a brilliant touchdown in the back of the end zone. This week, he is sure to be getting a few more looks in the passing game, which won’t be required to just shut down at the end of the first half as it seemingly was last week against the Seahawks. It’s tough to get the ball up the field against the 49ers, and that means a lot of short passes. That could mean a big day for Gonzo, who is the safety valve for Ryan all the time.
Aaron Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.