January 18, 2013

San Francisco 49ers vs. Atlanta Falcons NFC Championship Free Pick

NFC Championship Game Pick

Preview


San Francisco 49ers
vs.
Atlanta Falcons

Date/Time: Sunday, Jan.20 3 p.m. (ET)

Television: FOX

NFL Odds from VietBet

Point Spread: 49ers -3

Total: 48.5

 

NFL Betting Game Trends

San Francisco 49ers

  • San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco’s last 5 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco’s last 7 games when playing Atlanta
  • San Francisco is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
  • San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta

Atlanta Falcons

  • Atlanta is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against San Francisco
  • Atlanta is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Francisco
  • Atlanta is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home
  • Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
  • Atlanta is 7-14 ATS in its last 21 games when playing San Francisco

 

Game Overview

The San Francisco 49ers started the season as one of the top favorites to win the NFC title at 11/2 odds and is now just one win from paying off on this bet. They posted an overall record of 11-4-1 straight-up in the regular season and ran all over Green Bay 45-31 in last week’s Divisional Round as three-point favorites at home. The 49ers went 5-3 both SU and ATS on the road this season and the total has now gone OVER in their last five games.

Everyone knows that San Francisco has one of the best defenses in the NFL after ranking third in total yards allowed and second in points allowed, but the big x-factor heading into this matchup is quarterback Colin Kaepernick. After taking over for Alex Smith in the second half of the regular season, he cemented himself in this position in the win over Green Bay. Not only did the second-year vet throw for 263 yards and one score, he ran for a record 181 yards and two more touchdowns to help secure a trip to second-straight conference title game.

Atlanta was clearly the best team in the NFC this season based on record alone with a 13-3 jaunt through its regular-season schedule that included a 7-1 SU record at home. It also established itself as one of the most balanced and consistent teams in the league on both sides of the ball. The Falcons went 9-6-1 ATS overall and 4-4 ATS at home with the total staying UNDER in six of their last seven regular season games.

The playoffs have been a major sticking point for this team in recent years with a 0-3 record, but that seemed to be a moot point after opening-up a 20-point lead on Seattle in last Sunday’s Divisional Round game. The Falcons did their best to try and extend its postseason losing streak to four, but a last minute drive and ensuing field goal ended the streak with a 30-28 victory over the Seahawks as 2.5-point home favorites. It is hard to say that they actually got the playoff jinx off their back with a win like that.

Prediction

The memory of last season’s heart-breaking loss to the Giants in the title game has been tattooed on the 49ers’ brain all season long just like Kaepernick’s arms. San Francisco earned its right at a second chance while the Falcons are just plain lucky to be still playing. This difference in mentality will become painfully evident come Sunday afternoon.

San Francisco 28 Atlanta 17

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Dave Schwab

DJ is a freelance writer that concentrates on his true passion in life; the world of sports. He produces a number of articles each week for BangTheBook.com as well as a select group of other websites that specialize in providing the most up-to-date information for the sports gaming industry. His goal is to write insightful articles on a wide variety of sporting topics that can provide an edge to today's sophisticated online player.

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