October 9, 2010

San Jose State Spartans vs. Nevada Wolf Pack Preview and Free Picks



San Jose State Spartans
(1-4, 1-4 ATS)

Nevada Wolf Pack
(5-0, 3-2 ATS)

It’s the last duel of the night in NCAA football betting action on Saturday, and Bang the Book has all of the ins and outs that you need to know about the duel between the San Jose State Spartans and the Nevada Wolf Pack.

SJSU has been a real train wreck over the last two seasons, and it is fairly apparent in its ATS trends. The Spartans are 1-10 ATS in their L/11 road games and 6-20 ATS in their L/26 overall. There isn’t a single person on this team that has scored more than one touchdown this year, and the team only has five scores in as many games. Now, QB Jordan La Secla is banged up with injured ribs, and he might not be able to give it a go when push comes to shove on Saturday. La Secla has thrown for 735 yards and two TDs against three INTs on the season. The bright spot in the offense has been RB Lamon Muldrow, who has rushed the ball 46 times for 237 yards. He has one of the five TDs on the team. Defensively, if you take away the two games against FCS foes, the team has allowed 43.7 points per game, and that average might only be going up with the trip to Reno. The Spartans were defeated last week by UC-Davis from the FCS, making this season that much worse for them.

If the Wolf Pack plan on having four 100+ yard rushers like they did last year in this game, they are going to be impossible to stop. Odds have it, there will be at least two, as QB Colin Kaepernick and RB Vai Taua are both probably good to reach triple digits on Saturday. Both are averaging well over 100 yards per game on the ground and have combined for 1,189 rushing yards and 17 TDs this year. Kaepernick, in his senior year in Reno, has also thrown for 1,048 yards and eight TDs against just two picks. If you’re a video game player, this is a heck of a team for you! The Wolf Pack are averaging 526.4 yards per game and have 44.6 points per game on the board this season. The only team that hasn’t had at least 44 dropped on them by Nevada was the BYU Cougars. Last week’s 44-26 win against the UNLV Rebels marked the first failed attempt at a cover against an FBS team this season. The only other failed cover was the first game of the season against the FCS Eastern Washington Eagles.

This might be a six score NCAA football spread, but there’s no way that we can back the Spartans, especially with La Secla ailing. Nevada’s offense can score as many points as it wants to in this game, and we tend to think that we are going to see a real romp on Saturday night.

College Football Free Pick: Nevada Wolf Pack -37.5

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