Saturday MLB Betting Preview – Royals at Yankees

Kansas City fell four runs behind the New York Yankees in the first inning and never had a chance in coming back in a 7-1 defeat at Yankee Stadium.  The Royals squandered 14 hits by leaving 14 runners on base Thursday, managed to collect just five hits last night in the second game of the series.  The club has now recorded a 2-6 record since the All-Star break, after finishing out the first half with a 10-6 run.  It’s hard to expect the Royals breaking through with a victory this afternoon due to the club’s 2-13 mark when playing on Saturday this season (-900) and 23-45 record the last three years (-1,550).  The total in those games is 7-8 O/U and 33-34 O/U respectively.  Playing during the day has been a slightly profitable situation, posting a 14-17 record in 2010 (+30) and 66-74 mark over the last three seasons (+750).

Royals starting pitcher Kyle Davies is 4-6 with a 5.45 ERA in 18 starts this season (+700), with the club winning his last three outings.  In those three starts, the right-hander has allowed seven runs and 21 hits over 20.2 innings of work.  He is 3-2 with a 5.71 ERA in 10 road starts this season, issuing 35 free passes and collecting 39 strikeouts in 58.1 frames.  Davies has made just four daytime starts, posting a 1-2 record and 4.50 ERA compared to a 3-4 mark and 5.74 ERA in 14 nighttime outings.  In two career starts versus the Yankees, he stands at 1-0 with a 5.59 ERA, allowing them to hit for a combined .325 average.

New York has won the first two games of this series and have won 13 of 16, scoring 27 runs in their last three games.  The club has opened up a four-game lead on the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East race.  The Yankees are 5-2 on this nine-game, 10-day homestand, as the team has 33 remaining games at Yankee Stadium, which is tied for the fourth most in the American League.  New York is an impressive 24-11 in day games this season (+620) with the total being 19-14 O/U in those contests.  The club is averaging 6.4 runs per game under the sun while combining to hit for a .292 average, while holding opponents to 4.1 runs and a .233 mark at the plate.

Yankees starting pitcher Sergio Mitre is 0-1 with a 2.88 ERA in 12 appearances (two starts) this season (-290), with today’s outing being his first for the club since June 4.  The right-hander will be coming off the disabled list to make Saturday’s start against Kansas City, returning from a strained left oblique.  Mitre is 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA as a starter in 2010, with starts versus Detroit and Minnesota.  He has yet to record a decision in five home outings (one start), allowing four runs and seven hits over 11.1 innings, with opponents hitting a combined .179 against him.  In two career games (one start) versus the Royals, he is 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA.

Bettors must respect the visitors 4-3 record as a road underdog of +175 to +200 this season (+430) and the total being 5-2 O/U in this situation.  Playing the Yankees blindly based on the Royals dismal Saturday record would be a mistake, as the Bronx Bombers are just a game over .500 on this day (8-7, -300).

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