September 25, 2012

SEC Football Week 5 Handicapping Guide

SEC Football Week 5 Handicapping Guide

The college football season heads into Week 5 with a couple of interesting conference matchups on the slate. The SEC has six teams ranked in the latest AP Top 25 poll with Alabama still holding the top spot in the nation. LSU fell to third while Georgia held steady at No.5 and South Carolina climbed to No.6. Rounding out the six ranked teams are Florida at No.11 and Mississippi State at No.2. The following is a look at a couple of the top matchups for Week 5 in the SEC along with betting lines as provided by Bookmaker.

Tennessee Volunteers vs. No.5 Georgia Bulldogs (-14)

Tennessee bounced back from a 37-20 Week 3 loss to Florida as a 3.5-point home favorite with a 47-26 pasting of Akron this past Saturday as a 31.5-point favorite at home. The total has gone OVER in all three of its games with a posted line with an offense that is averaging 38.3 points a game

Georgia continues to roll through the first part of its schedule with a 4-0 straight-up (2-2 against the spread) record in which it has outscored its opponents 190-66. The Bulldogs are ranked ninth in the nation in scoring while holding its opponents to an average of 16.5 points a game.

These two teams have split the last eight meetings 4-4 SU with each winning twice on the road and twice at home. The Volunteers have a slight 5-3 edge ATS in these last eight games but are 0-2 both ways the last two years. The total has stayed UNDER in three of the last five meetings.

No.6 South Carolina Gamecocks (-27.5) vs. Kentucky Wildcats

The Gamecocks made it a perfect 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) on the year with an impressive 31-10 thrashing of Missouri as 10.5-point favorites at home this past Saturday. The total stayed UNDER the 48-point line in that game, but has gone OVER in their previous two. South Carolina’s defense is ranked fifth in the nation in points allowed; giving-up an average of just 9.8 points a game.

It has been a rough go of it for Kentucky so far with a 1-3 start both SU and ATS including last Saturday’s 38-0 loss to Florida as a 23.5-point underdog on the road. The Wildcats’ defense has been the primary problem as it is giving-up close to 30 points a game against teams like Kent State and Western Kentucky.

Kentucky stunned South Carolina 31-28 the last time they met in Lexington as a 5.5-point home favorite, but that was the Gamecocks only SU loss in the last 10 meetings. South Carolina has a slight 6-4 edge over the same 10 games ATS and the total has gone OVER in the last five meetings.

Mississippi Rebels vs. No.1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-31)

Ole Miss has made the most of its non-conference schedule with a 3-1 start both SU and ATS. Its only loss was a 66-31 beatdown at the hands of Texas as a 10.5-point home underdog in Week 3, but the Rebels took their frustrations out on Tulane last Saturday in a 39-0 shutout as 17.5-point favorites on the road. The total has stayed UNDER in two of their last three games.

Alabama is still waiting to be tested after a 4-0 SU (2-2 ATS) start in which it has outscored its opponents by the combined score of 168-21. Needless to say, there are no longer any real concerns about the amount of talent that was lost from last season’s national championship team. The Crimson Tide are about as balanced as it gets on both sides of the ball.

Last season, the Rebels lost 52-7 as 27.5-point home underdogs, which dropped them to 1-9 SU in the last 10 meetings. They have done a much better job with the points and are 6-4 ATS in the same 10 games. The total went OVER the 45-point total last season but it stayed UNDER in each of the previous three meetings.

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Dave Schwab

DJ is a freelance writer that concentrates on his true passion in life; the world of sports. He produces a number of articles each week for BangTheBook.com as well as a select group of other websites that specialize in providing the most up-to-date information for the sports gaming industry. His goal is to write insightful articles on a wide variety of sporting topics that can provide an edge to today's sophisticated online player.

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