Super Bowl 48 MVP Odds

The 2013-14 NFL season comes to a close on Sunday with the Seattle Seahawks and the San Francisco 49ers squaring off against each other in the Super Bowl. Take a look at the Super Bowl 48 MVP betting lines and our predictions for which players have the best value to take home the honor.

Bet at 5dimes
Super Bowl 48 MVP Odds
Peyton Manning +130
Russell Wilson +350
Marshawn Lynch +575
Richard Sherman +1550
Demaryius Thomas +1650
Percy Harvin +1650
Wes Welker +1850
Knowshon Moreno +1850
Eric Decker +2500
Julius Thomas +2550
Earl Thomas +3350
Golden Tate +3350
Doug Baldwin +4100
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie +5100
Montee Ball +5100
Champ Bailey +6650
Danny Trevathan +6650
Kam Chancellor +6650
Zach Miller +7550
Duke Ihenacho +10000
Matt Prater +10000
Michael Bennett +10000
Steven Hauschka +10000
Field (Any Other Player) +1600

It’s all about the quarterback when you talk about the Super Bowl MVP, and if you think that the Broncos are going to win this game SU, you have to think that Peyton Manning is the man to pick at +130 for this award. Manning was the MVP of Super Bowl 41 when his Indianapolis Colts beat the Chicago Bears in spite of the fact that he really didn’t have all that great of a game. Knowing that the possibility is there that this is the last time that Manning is going to step onto the field, we have a tough time believing that the man who would be the sentimental choice for the award won’t win it unless someone else does something so remarkable, it isn’t even funny for the Broncos. Remember that Manning threw for 5,477 yards and 55 TDs in the regular season, and he is coming off of an AFC Championship Game where he was as clinical as could be, throwing for a conference championship game record 400 yards in the win over the New England Patriots. Yes, this is the best defense he will have faced all season long, but Manning doesn’t need to throw for 400 yards or five touchdowns to win MVP honors. As we see it, he just has to win the game and not toss three picks.

A running back hasn’t won this award since RB Terrell Davis took down Super Bowl MVP honors for these Broncos back in Super Bowl 32. It’s not really all that plausible that Knowshon Moreno will win this award, knowing that in spite of the fact he had 10 rushing touchdowns and three more as a receiver, he still splits carries at a 2/1 rate with Montee Ball, and he still only scored 13 touchdowns, a mere 43 short of what Manning accounted for, including his one rushing touchdown on the season. However, it is quite believable that Marshawn Lynch, who is +575, could be the most logical option for the Seahawks. Russell Wilson made some big time plays in the NFC Championship Game against the San Francisco 49ers, but it was Lynch who had the flashier stats, running for over 100 yards and a TD. He has done that a whole heck of a lot of late, and this is a Denver rushing defense which hasn’t really been tested by the best rushing teams in the league.

Aside from that, you’re really playing Russian Roulette trying to figure out who is going to end up going off. When you look back at the previous MVPs who weren’t quarterbacks, the results were generally fairly obvious. WR Santonio Holmes was a bit of an oddball for the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl 43, as was WR Deion Branch for the New England Patriots in Super Bowl 39. S Dexter Jackson won the Super Bowl MVP award in Super Bowl 37, while LB Ray Lewis won it for the Baltimore Ravens in Super Bowl 35. The rest of the Super Bowl MVP winners, including Lewis for the Ravens, were fairly obvious choices.

There are no obvious choices outside of Manning, Wilson, and Lynch. The Broncos utilize four different receiving options, each of which had at least 10 touchdowns in the regular season, and the return of WR Percy Harvin to the lineup for the Seahawks really throws a kink into the works in terms of who is going to be the leading receiver for their side.

If we had to take a shot though, we would do so with Doug Baldwin at 41 to 1. Baldwin had 106 yards and six receptions last week in the NFC Championship Game, and he is probably the best deep threat which Wilson brings to the table. No receiver had more plays of 20+ yards, 30+ yards, 40+ yards, and 50+ yards than did Baldwin, and if this does end up being a low scoring game, one big play might be all that makes the Super Bowl MVP. Baldwin can also be used on special teams, and though he didn’t return all that many kicks this year, he might get his opportunity in the biggest game of the season.

Don’t fall into the trap of backing Richard Sherman for sure. His price isn’t nearly high enough, and though he might be the media MVP with all of the running of his mouth that he does, he isn’t going to win over any MVP votes by smack talking. Sherman did lead the team with eight picks this year, but we have to think that Manning is going to be smart enough to just generally stay away from him. There probably isn’t a great bet on the Seattle defense to get the job done. On the Denver defense, we would at least take a stab at Champ Bailey, who is playing in the Super Bowl for the first time in his career in this one. He’s 66.50 to 1, and you have to think if he has one pick, he’ll at least have a shot of claiming the honor, especially if this turns out to be a defensive game. From a matchup standpoint, Bailey is probably going to get picked on a bit, as he is the second DB and far worse at this point in his career than his partner in crime on the other side of the field, DB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.

Adam Markowitz

is a staff writer living in the Orlando area. He has covered NFL, MLB, college football, CFL, AFL, NBA, college basketball, NASCAR, golf, tennis, and the NHL for a number of various outlets in his career, and he has been published by a number of different media outlets, including the Orlando Sentinel and the Wall Street Journal.