The line for the Super Bowl is always tight, but sharp bettors in all corners of the world are able to find value on player props. Adam Markowitz did a great breakdown of some of the exotic props that people like to have fun with earlier this week. This article will cover some of the player props available for Super Bowl XLVIII. You will want to shop around for the best odds on these props and, in some cases, you can even find both sides of a prop at plus-money to guarantee a profit or find a line that moved to give you a nice middle opportunity.
Here are five player prop bets that may have some good value:
1. Knowshon Moreno receiving yards Over 25.5 (-115, Bovada)
The best way to counter a defense that pressures the quarterback and plays physical coverage on the outside is to make them respect the run. However, against a defense that ranked 12th against the run in yards per carry and allowed a league-best four rushing touchdowns during the regular season, using Knowshon Moreno as a receiver would give the Broncos an extension of the running game and that could be part of the gameplan to open up the field for Julius Thomas and Jacob Tamme. Moreno would have exceeded the total of 25.5 in 10 of the 18 games that the Broncos have played this season.
The Seahawks allowed 161 rush yards in their game against the 49ers, but held the running backs to just 31 yards on 17 carries. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick did the damage with his legs, something that Peyton Manning is extremely unlikely to do. Most sportsbooks have Moreno’s rushing attempts lined at 15.5. The Broncos probably want to get Moreno close to 20 touches to soften up the defense and using him as a receiver would do just that.
2. Percy Harvin Under 4 receptions (Even, DSI)
Even though Harvin is the most dynamic receiver for the Seahawks, can he stay in the game long enough to catch five passes? Harvin played in just two games for the Seahawks this season, making four catches on five targets. Harvin was cleared to play by passing the NFL concussion protocols, but between his migraine issues, a hip injury, and concussions, Harvin has played just 11 games since the start of the 2012 season. He will have to play for this prop to be graded.
Harvin has been practicing, but his timing with Russell Wilson can’t be on point. Not to mention, Wilson has looked very shaky over the last several weeks, completing less than 58 percent of his passes over the last six games, with an average of 14 completions per week.
3. Kicker Points: Matt Prater (-130, Bovada)
The Seattle Seahawks allowed 20 red zone touchdowns this season, while the Denver Broncos allowed 48. Peyton Manning should be able to gain some yardage, but cashing in on red zone opportunities may prove to be difficult, as the Seahawks were one of the league’s top red zone defenses. That would bring Prater on to the field for some easy field goal attempts that could distance him from Steven Hauschka in the point scoring race between kickers.
If you think Hauschka, who attempted 35 field goals this season and missed only two, will also get opportunities, you could simply play Prater over 1.5 field goals for -145 at BetOnline.
4. Danny Trevathan Over 7.5 Tackles (Solo + Ast) (-105, BetOnline)
With Marshawn Lynch figuring to be a huge part of the gameplan for the Seahawks, Danny Trevathan should play a big factor defensively for the Broncos. Trevathan had eight or more tackles in 10 of the Broncos’ 18 games this season. Trevathan recorded 128 tackles this season and has added 12 more in two playoff games. Russell Wilson has had trouble throwing deep balls of late, so Trevathan should get plenty of tackling opportunities on underneath routes and running plays.
5. Will Russell Wilson throw a second quarter TD? Yes +150 (BetOnline)
Russell Wilson’s best quarter statistically this season has been the second quarter. He has his highest completion percentage (65.4) and a TD/INT ratio of 11/0. By the second quarter, all of the early game jitters should be behind Wilson and the Seahawks certainly have the opportunity to give him good field position with a nice return or a turnover. Adjustments will have been made on the fly and both teams should start to settle in.
As mentioned above, the Broncos allowed 48 red zone touchdowns. If the Seahawks can get a second quarter opportunity, Wilson has a very good chance of cashing this prop.
Adam Burke is a freelance writer and amateur handicapper with a knack for finding value through matchup analysis and a deep understanding of the sports betting market. His main area of expertise is baseball, with a background in sabermetrics and advanced statistics. He is the host of The Gridiron Gambling Report and our college football and college basketball BangTheBook.com podcasts on the BlogTalkRadio Network.