February 2, 2011

Super Bowl XLV Betting: Analyzing the Super Bowl Total

It’s not just the Super Bowl odds that we are analyzing here at Bang the Book, but the Super Bowl ‘total’ as well. This season, there were certainly a ton more games that went past the number than stayed below it, and that trend has held true through the playoffs as well. But will it hold true in Super Bowl XLV between the Green Bay Packers and the Pittsburgh Steelers?

Season to Remember for ‘Over’ Bettors: It really seemed amazing that there were so many more ‘overs’ than ‘unders’ this year in the NFL betting campaign. When push really came to shove, a whopping 56.3 percent of all duels ended up going past the number, as there were 147 ‘over’ contests and 114 ‘under’ clashes. Even though three of the first four games of the second season failed to eclipse the number, in Divisional Round weekend, there were four ‘over’ games. The NFC Championship Game didn’t quite reach the number, but nearly did, while the AFC Championship Game just barely squeaked ‘over.

‘Under’ Bettors Going Green: The Packers went 10-6 this year for the ‘under’, making them one of the few teams in the league that can say that they posted double digits in ‘under’ clashes. This is also the only team in the postseason that lasted at least two games that has more ‘under’ duels than ‘over’ ones, as Green Bay has a 2-1 mark on the postseason trail. The Packers held six teams to seven points or fewer this year, tops in the league, and though there has been a lot of talk about how great their offense is, they did have six games this year with 17 or fewer points scored as well.

Hit the ‘Over’ on 19 for the Steelers: The trick for ‘over’ games for the Steelers is apparently watching the opposition getting to 19 points or greater. It only happened seven times all season long, including in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, and of the seven that it happened, six times the game went beyond the ‘total’. When the Steelers didn’t allow at least 19 points in a game, the ‘under’ bettors rejoiced, going a whopping 9-2.

Green Bay Super Bowl Trends of Note: The Packers are all about the ‘under’ in their recent NFL trends. They are 8-3 for ‘under’ bettors in their last 11 games following an ATS victory, while they are 5-2 for low scorers in their last seven played on field turf. Green Bay is also 9-4 in its last 13 duels towards the ‘under’ against teams with a winning record. The Packers are a perfect 4-0 in their four Super Bowl betting battles for ‘over’ bettors to boot.

Pittsburgh Super Bowl Trends of Note: With the Steelers, we have a significantly mixed bag of results. The Steelers have played four straight games beyond the ‘total’ following an SU or an ATS victory, and the ‘over’ is also 4-0 in their L/4 games as underdogs of a field goal or fewer in the postseason. The ‘over’ has cashed in five of their last six as underdogs in the postseason, and they are 16-5 towards the ‘over’ in their L/21 playoff games as well. However, the ‘under’ has cashed four straight times in Pittsburgh games in which it was the dog on the NFL odds. In the Steelers’ seven Super Bowl appearances, they are 5-2 towards the ‘over’.

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