Ten Betting Tips: NFL Betting Bits To Watch For Week 1

The 2012 NFL betting campaign is about set to kick off on Wednesday night, as all 32 teams begin their conquest to lift the Lombardi Trophy. Today, we take a look at our Top 10 Betting Tips, as we point out some of the most important people, teams, and trends that you’ll be hearing all about as the season gets started.

Even though the Dallas Cowboys have been relatively irrelevant over the course of the last few years, their owner, Jerry Jones still finds ways to open his mouth. He decided to come out earlier this week and say that his quarterback, Tony Romo was watching his window of opportunity shut. Excuse us, Mr. Jones? All Romo did last year was throw for 4,184 yards and 31 TDs with just 10 picks. He has averaged throwing for 267.6 yards per game since taking over as the starter in 2007, and he has averaged 1.94 TDs per game. Yes, Romo is 32, and yes, we know that you’re frustrated with the fact that your quarterback has never been able to win the big time playoff game, but the window of opportunity definitely isn’t anywhere near closed yet. Instead, we think that the man that is really running out of time is…

Philip Rivers, who still has yet to even make it to the Super Bowl. We aren’t so sure why Rivers doesn’t take some more heat. We suppose that it is the aura around Head Coach Norv Turner that is making this team stink so badly. His Bolts, in spite of the fact that they clearly had the most talent in the AFC West last year, had the conference’s worst ATS mark at just 6-10. Rivers had a whopping 20 INTs, which really erased the fact that he threw for at least 4,624 yards. Most years, that would be enough to lead the league in passing by a country mile. Alas, there were three quarterbacks that threw for over 5,000 yards last year, including…

Matthew Stafford, who is the only man that ranked in the Top 5 in passing last year that hasn’t won at least one Super Bowl ring. (By the way, the men ranking No. 6 and No. 7 were, of course, Rivers and Romo respectively.) Unfortunately for the Lions, Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson are about all that they have to work with. Detroit has a first week date with the St. Louis Rams, who were one of the best ‘under’ team a campaign ago at 9-6-1. Detroit went 10-6 for ‘over’ bettors, and there were only three teams that did more. It shouldn’t be a surprise that the New England Patriots and Green Bay Packers did better, but the…

Buffalo Bills? Yep, the Bills went 11-4-1, leading the league for the highest percentage of ‘over’ games last year. Part of that was the fact that the offense really had some great weeks with RB Fred Jackson toting the rock and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick forgetting he is nothing more than an Ivy League quarterback trying to make it in the NFL. No, the real problems came with the defense, which allowed a whopping 434 points last year, the worst mark in the league. Yet there are high hopes for the Bills once again this year, as this is the campaign in which many think that they can get into the playoffs. Why is that? Because of arguably their biggest free agent signing in their franchise’s history…

Mario Williams. Williams was once the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft of the Houston Texans, but he was allowed to walk during free agency this year. Buffalo snatched him and his 53.5 career sacks up, and the hope is there that he can get back at the top of his game, where he clearly was before suffering a season ending injury at the end of last year. Williams will be a man on the prowl in Buffalo’s first game of the year against the New York Jets, and the reason that the NFL betting odds in that game have dipped all the way down to New York -1.5 is because of the horrendous play of…

Wayne Hunter. Yes, this is probably the only time that you are going to see us talk about a specific offensive lineman here at Bang the Book, but if there is a big ugly that can change the face of a game, this is it. Hunter is going to be matched up with Williams at all times, and that is going to put all the pressure in the world on QB Mark Sanchez to get rid of the ball in a hurry. Hunter may as well have been a turnstile in the preseason, and he was a big part of the reason that New York went 0-4 and scored just a single touchdown. Over the course of the last decade and a half, teams that go 0-4 in the preseason not named the Indianapolis Colts go on to make the playoffs just 23% of the time. That’s a stat that doesn’t bode well for Head Coach Rex Ryan. However, a man that clearly is looking at the other end of the spectrum is…

Andy Reid of the Philadelphia Eagles. Reid is the longest tenured coach in the NFL right now, but after a year in which his supposed “Dream Team” went just 8-8 SU and 8-8 ATS, there was definitely a sentiment that perhaps he should have been fired. Reid’s team did cover its last four games of the year, and the Eagles did go 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in the preseason for whatever that’s worth. Over 60% of the teams that go 4-0 in the preseason end up getting in the postseason, which could be notable as well. However, it is clear that the Eagles are only going as far as…

Michael Vick takes them. Vick had an MVP type of season two years ago, and it shouldn’t be much of a surprise that he was able to get the team into the playoffs and win a playoff game that year. Last year though, Vick only had 18 TDs and rushed for just one more, and the quarterback accounting for a total of 19 scores generally doesn’t cut it. Vick has been battling all sorts of injuries in the preseason, and he is going to be wearing a jacket to protect his ribs against the Cleveland Browns on Sunday. Because of Cleveland’s ineptness, the team is a tremendous 8.5-point underdog, but that isn’t nearly the biggest point spread of the weekend. The biggest favorites of the weekend are the…

Houston Texans, who are laying 12.5 to QB Ryan Tannehill and the Miami Dolphins. Houston was able to get into the playoffs last year for the first time in franchise history, and it had to get the job done against the Cincinnati Bengals with QB TJ Yates, the team’s third stringer calling the shots. QB Matt Schaub is back, and he is going to be the man that is leading the team this year, but it will forever be hilarious to see that Yates has a playoff win under his belt, the exact same number of wins that…

Tony Romo has in the playoffs in his career. Romo might not have more than just that one playoff win, but he does have a chip on his shoulder now from his owner’s comments, and there is no better way for him to shut up his critics than to go out and win on Wednesday night. No team has ever come out in an opening game played before the first Sunday of the year and beaten a Super Bowl champion on the road. If Romo can become the first quarterback to win a road game against the champs in Week 1 in this format, perhaps we will all start taking this team a heck of a lot more serious than 28 to 1 Super Bowl odds suggest.

Andrew Ryan

Andrew Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.

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