November 24, 2012

Ten Betting Tips: NFL Betting Bits To Watch For Week 12

Week 12 of the 2012 NFL betting campaign is about set to kick off on Thursday night, as all 32 teams continue their conquest to lift the Lombardi Trophy. Today, we take a look at our Top 10 Betting Tips, as we point out some of the most important people, teams, and trends that you’ll be hearing all about as the season continues.

It’s Thanksgiving, and here at Bang the Book, we know that we have plenty to be thankful for. We are thankful that we get a chance to see QB Drew Brees in his prime for the New Orleans Saints at this point. Brees is averaging 306.6 yards per game this year, and he needs to average 322.3 yards per game for the rest of the year to make it to 5,000 yards for the third time in his career. He’ll take on the San Francisco 49ers and their outstanding defense this weekend in the Bayou, and it is a surprising game in which New Orleans is a one-point underdog. No matter who the coach is in New Orleans, there is no doubt who the man of the hour is under center. Unfortunately, the same can’t be said for…

Jim Harbaugh, who might be on the verge of making a catastrophic mistake with his 49ers. Instead of tabbing QB Alex Smith or QB Collin Kaepernick as his main man under center, Harbaugh came out and said that he was considering rotating quarterbacks. Whether this is a ruse or not, it’s terrible news for the San Fran organization. Kaepernick is the future of this franchise, while Smith is the here and now. He’s done nothing wrong over the course of the last two years, and all that he’s done is lead the team to a No. 2 seed in last year’s playoffs and perhaps the No. 2 seed this year, too. Of course, the last time that was in a quarterback quandary like this was the Denver Broncos. And what did they do with QB Tim Tebow? They got rid of him and signed…

Peyton Manning. Speaking of things that we are thankful for, we are absolutely thankful that No. 18 is back in the saddle. Manning could not show up for the rest of the year, and he has already won Comeback Player of the Year. He’s the favorite on the MVP odds as well, and no one is going to take that away from him if he keeps playing like this as well. The Broncos have scored at least 30 points in five straight games this year, and they are really rolling through the AFC West. They’re favored by 10.5 this week, making them not just the biggest favorite of the weekend, but one of the biggest road favorites that we’ll see all year long. We just hope for their sake that they do a better job covering the spread as the week’s biggest favorites than the…

Houston Texans did last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Texans were down two touchdowns in the fourth quarter even though they were 15.5 point favorites against the Jags. Still, they showed the heart of a champion, scoring the two TDs at the end of regulation and eventually getting the touchdown that won the game in overtime. It was one of the nerviest games of the year though, and it was almost the second tie in as many weeks that the league had to offer. The Texans are tied for the second best ATS record in the game this year, and the only team in better shape is the…

Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs fell apart at the end of last year, and as a result, Head Coach Greg Schiano was hired in the place of the departed Raheem Morris. Now, Tampa Bay is playing with a certain swagger to it, and it has a 6-4 SU record and an 8-2 ATS mark as well. The team has actually spent a part of the week favored over the Atlanta Falcons, who really need to get some better contributions out of…

Matt Ryan. What in the world is going on with Matty Ice right now? Yes, he leads the league in passing yards with 3,072, but he also has 12 picks, a whopping five of which came last week against the Arizona Cardinals. Ryan is one tough cookie, and he has only lost one game in which he threw for at least three TDs in that effort. However, he also has a grand total of zero playoff wins in his career, something that could really haunt him down the line this year. After all, his Falcons were the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs two years ago, only to get bounced by the…

Green Bay Packers. The Packers went on to win the Super Bowl that year, but they were the No. 1 seed last year in the NFC, only to get knocked out by the New York Giants. How appropriate that the G-Men are on tap this week for the Pack! QB Aaron Rodgers knows that his team has a massive score to settle with New York, and anything less than an upset in the Meadowlands wouldn’t feel like vengeance for sure. The Packers have been dealing with some bad injuries, but none are like the injury that the Broncos suffered this week with…

Willis McGahee. Poor McGahee has had a terrible time staying healthy in his career, and he is out basically for the rest of the year at this point with an MCL tear. It was a shame, because the former Miami Hurricane was having a heck of a season to that point. Now, there is going to be a lot of pressure on the back of RB Ronnie Hillman, who is projected to be one of the top rookie running backs in the NFL. He’s no…

Doug Martin, though. Martin is the top rusher amongst rookie this year, not the Cleveland Browns’ Trent Richardson. Now, that’s not dogging anything that Richardson has done this year, but Martin has been a beast, and Tampa Bay is absolutely justified for trading up to get him. He has rumbled for 1,000 yards this year, and he is one of the top fantasy football running backs in the league as well. Of course, this is about betting, not fantasy football, but Martin’s success is one of the reasons why the Bucs are favored over the Falcons this weekend. If New Orleans had a running back like this, then…

Drew Brees would be all the more dangerous. Of course, he has a great back in RB Darren Sproles, who could be coming back this week after a few weeks out of the fold. And now with a healthy unit, this offense could be all the more productive. Don’t be shocked if the Saints end up getting more and more dangerous as the weeks go on. They’re a 5-5 team after being 0-4 to start the season, so the rest of the NFC, including the 49ers this week, had better take notice.

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Andrew Ryan

Andrew Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.

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