Thursday MLB Betting Preview – Rockies at Marlins

Colorado is set to play the final game of a four-game series against the Florida Marlins at Sun Life Stadium, scoring a combined 20 runs in the first three games.  The Rockies have still dropped five of their last seven games and won’t find it easy to get their offense going against a leading contender for the NL Cy Young Award.  The offense does rank second in the the National League in some important categories including runs and (454) and on-base percentage (.340).  The overall series between the two teams stands at an even 75-75, but the club is a disappointing 28-45 against the Marlins in South Beach.  The Rockies will find themselves as a road underdog of +175 to +200 for the first time this year, posting a 2-6 mark in this situation the last three years (-240).  Colorado has always been solid during the summer months, especially during July, tallying a 10-5 record this year (+500) and 42-26 mark the last three years (+1,100).

Rockies starting pitcher Jorge De La Rosa has struggled mightily since returning from a two and a half month layoff on the disabled list.  He has lasted just 7.2 innings in two starts, giving up 11 earned runs on 10 hits in compiling a 12.91 ERA.  “The first two starts post-rehab have been very erratic,” manager Jim Tracy said.  “I don’t think he’s giving himself an opportunity to use his repertoire of pitches.”  The left-hander is 1-1 with a 10.80 ERA in two road starts on the year, surrendering four long balls and issuing nine walks in just 8.1 frames.  De La Rosa will be making his ninth career appearance (eighth start) against today’s opponent, going 3-4 with a 6.57 ERA.

Florida sits just two games under .500 and has to feel confident in throwing its ace at Colorado this afternoon.  The Marlins have managed to display no home field advantage this season, coming in with an even 24-24 mark (-360) and have averaged 4.5 runs at Sun Life Stadium compared to the visitors scoring 4.4.  The total is 26-19 O/U for the Fish in Miami this season and 112-87 O/U the last three years.  The starting rotation has the fourth-best home ERA in the National League at 3.30, while the bullpen owns a 4.71 ERA at home while posting a 3.86 mark on the road.  Florida sits at 14-12 in day games this season (+300) with the total being 10-15 O/U in those games.

Marlins starting pitcher Josh Johnson is set to make his 20th start of the season, posting a 10-3 record and 1.62 ERA.  He came away with his 10th victory last time out, holding the Nationals scoreless over six frames, allowing seven hits and striking out seven.  The power right-hander has tossed at least six innings in his last 17 starts overall and finished the first half with the lowest ERA in club history at 1.70.  Johnson will be making his third career start and fourth appearance against Colorado, going 2-0 with a 1.04 ERA.  He last faced the Rockies on August 14, 2009 at Sun Life Stadium, earning the win by surrendering just a single run while striking out 11 in a 6-5 win.

Bettors must take notice of the Rockies 14-3 mark in the final game of a four-game set, which fits well with the team’s 5-0 record in De La Rosa’s last five road starts versus a team with a losing record.  The Marlins consistently have problems putting together long winning streaks, going 2-5 in their last seven games following a win.  Florida is currently a -215 at Bookmaker.com, as the team has been a -200 to -225 favorite just three times this season (1-2, -300).

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