NFL Betting Trends- Last Season’s Top Teams on the Total Line
Most of the betting public loves to get caught up in pointspreads when it comes to wagering on the NFL, but each week there is also money to be made betting on the total line, if you know where and how to seek out the value in the numbers.
While we are still a long way off from the start of next season’s games, the following is a look back at a few teams that were proven winners on either the ‘over’ or ‘under’ play. Since history has a way of repeating itself and betting trends tend to carry over from one season to the next, this look back should provide a good starting point to kick-off this year’s handicapping efforts.
2011 Money Makers on the OVER
One of the best bets on the ‘over’ last season was the Cincinnati Bengals. Counting their Wildcard Round loss to Houston, the total went ‘over’ in 11 of their 17 games. The Oddmakers caught up with the Bengals towards the end of the season after nine of their first 11 games went ‘over’ the total. Overall, the total went 5-2-1 at home and 5-3 on the road.
With a rookie quarterback in Andy Dalton and a rookie wide receiver in AJ Green, the expectations were for some serious growing on offense. Both players played much better than expected and the Bengals dramatically improved from the previous year, catching the Oddsmakers and the betting public by surprise.
Another team at the top of this list was the New York Jets with 10 of their 16 games going ‘over’ the total. They started out like a house on fire, with five of their first seven games going ‘over’ before their bye week and closed things out on a strong note, with four of their last six games going ‘over’ the total. The results were evenly split no matter where the game was played with five of eight games going ‘over’ both at home and on the road.
The key for this season will be how well does New York’s defense bounce back from a sub-par performance in 2011. The betting public probably help keep the total line on the Jets’ games artificially low based on past reputation, but the reality was that New York ended the season ranked 20th in the NFL in points allowed.
2011 Money Makers on the UNDER
The Miami Dolphins presented the perfect storm last season when it came to betting the ‘under’ with an offense that had trouble finding the end zone to go along with a defense that was ranked sixth in the NFL in points allowed. The result was that 12 of the Dolphins 16 games stayed ‘under’ the total. What made things really attractive is that six of eight games stayed ‘under’ both at home and on the road.
After a 38-24 opening day loss to New England, in which the total went ‘over’ the 46.5-point line, the next Dolphin game to go ‘over’ the total was a 34-14 victory against Oakland in Week 13 with the total set at 43, providing a highly profitable return for anyone who capitalized on this run.
Another team that had a highly profitable return on the ‘under’ was the Kansas City Chiefs. After posting a 10-6 record in 2010 that led to an AFC West Division title, the bar was raised pretty high for the Chiefs heading into last season. The pressure took its toll and they opened the season with three straight losses with the total going ‘over’ in two. By the time Kansas City finally got its act together on defense it was too late in the win/loss column, but not too late on the total line with 10 of its last 11 games staying ‘under’ the total.
The Chiefs were especially profitable at home with seven of their eight home games staying ‘under’, while five of eight stayed ‘under’ on the road. The end result was that 12 of their 16 games stayed ‘under’ the total in 2011.
DJ is a freelance writer that concentrates on his true passion in life; the world of sports. He produces a number of articles each week for BangTheBook.com as well as a select group of other websites that specialize in providing the most up-to-date information for the sports gaming industry. His goal is to write insightful articles on a wide variety of sporting topics that can provide an edge to today's sophisticated online player.