(7-0, 6-0-1 ATS)
Air Force Falcons
(5-3, 2-6 ATS)
The Utes have to avoid complacency on the eve of the biggest duel in the MWC this year at home against the TCU Horned Frogs. So far this year, Utah has been absolutely untouchable though. It is putting up video game type numbers. The Utes rank No. 14 in the land in total offense at 467.1 yards per game, and the end result has been a stunning 47.7 points per game, No. 4 in the country. Four times in the last five games, Utah has put at least 56 points on the board, though the level of competition that that has happened against hasn’t been as strong as what it will see for the rest of this season. Defensively, things have been almost as impressive. Sure, the Pitt Panthers and Iowa State Cyclones put a total of 51 points on the board between them, but in Utah’s other five games this year, foes are only scoring 7.8 points per game. QB Jordan Wynn has taken back control of this offense, and he has played sparkling football. Wynn has completed 69.8 percent of his passes for 1,283 yards and 12 scores against five INTs this season, and he is getting some great help from the rest of his offense as well. RBs Eddie Wide and Matt Asiata have combined for 802 yards and 12 TDs as well.
Air Force feels like a team that should be a heck of a lot better off than 2-6 ATS on the season. There might not be an unluckier team in the country. The three losses this season have all come on the road for the Falcons, and all three have come to great teams (Oklahoma Sooners, San Diego State Aztecs, TCU Horned Frogs). We know that they are probably amongst the 25 best teams in the nation, but have failed to cover their last five spreads by just a total of 26 points. It was a rough break to see RB Jared Tew go down with a leg injury, but this means that there are more opportunities for RB Asher Clark and QB Tim Jefferson to carry the load. Those two have combined for 1,185 yards this year with 11 TDs. Air Force is averaging 326.5 rushing yards per game, No. 1 in the land. Part of the problem though, is the 205.8 yards per game that it is giving up on the ground. TCU rolled up 377 yards on the turf last week, including 209 yards by RB Ed Wesley.
We already know that this is a bad luck team, and Air Force just isn’t going to get over it this week. The Utes are just too strong, and as long as they don’t ultimately end up losing focus, they will find a way to go on the road and win this game by at least two scores.
College Football Free Pick: Utah Utes -7