It’s Monday night, and that means that there is just one more game with which to handicap on the NFL card. The New York Giants will play host to the Minnesota Vikings in this edition of Monday Night Football, and we have some great MNF props covered so you can find an alternative way to beat the NFL betting lines in this one.
Josh Freeman Passing Yards Under 240.5 – This game is all about All Day for the Vikings. There’s just no way that over the course of the last 12 days that Minnesota has a passing game that is capable of putting up 250 yards, even against the sieve known as the defense for the Giants. Freeman had a terrible completion percentage in Tampa Bay all of last season, and there is a good chance that he is going to complete last than half of his passes in this game. RB Adrian Peterson should be carrying the ball at least 25 times, and we wouldn’t be all that surprised if there aren’t many plays at all that go for more than 10 yards on the day for Minnesota. Freeman also isn’t a guarantee to make it through this whole game, and that certainly has to play a factor as well.
Josh Freeman Passing Attempts Over 34.5 – And yet, we’re going to say that Freeman is going to put the ball in the air at least 35 times in this game as well. The implication is that Freeman is going to go approximately 20-of-34, which would be near a 60% completion percentage. Freeman went 15-of-31, 9-of-22, and 19-of-41 in his three games with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, all of which were under 50%, and we have to think that this is going to be another one of those games with a brand new team. The difference is that Minnesota has been throwing the ball a bit with both QB Christian Ponder and then with QB Matt Cassel. Head Coach Leslie Frazier knows that he has to be balanced, as the whole world is stacking the box against Peterson. He might only complete 15 passes, but we think that Freeman will put it in the air at least 35 times on the day.
Kyle Rudolph Over 3.5 Receptions – This probably isn’t the best prop bet in the world, but we’re going to go off of history in this one. Freeman utilized his tight end quite a bit when he was with Tampa Bay, and he has the opportunity to do so here in Minnesota as well. The difference is that Freeman doesn’t have WR Vincent Jackson anywhere to throw the ball to in Minnesota, but he does have a much better tight end situation. Inevitably, the passes are going to be shorter and safer, and that means that Rudolph, a solid check down option, could be involved in the passing game quite a bit.
Eli Manning Under 0.5 Interceptions – It really seems crazy to think that Manning isn’t going to throw a pick after throwing a zillion in his first six games of the season. However, we’re going to give the younger brother of Peyton a chance in this one, especially at a +225 price. Manning would have to not get picked off six times in a season to make this profitable, but that would be a huge profit margin. He went seven games last season without getting picked off, and we have to think that there is a point that he is going to have one of these clean games in him. If QB Case Keenum can go the whole game for the Houston Texans without throwing a pick against the league’s best defense, Manning can surely do it against one of the league’s worst.
Eli Manning Over 23.5 Pass Completions – These last two games while playing from behind, Manning has completed 27 and 28 passes against the Dallas Cowboys and the Denver Broncos. He isn’t going to need to do as much this time around, but if you go back and look at some of the games last season when the offense was really rolling, there were some huge numbers that were put on the board in terms of completions. The running game is actually worse now for Manning than it was last year at this time, and that really forces Head Coach Tom Coughlin to figure out how to put the rock in the air and sort of use the short passing game as an extension of the running game. We have to think that there will be at least 25 completions in this game, especially knowing that Minnesota is probably going to end up going three and out quite a bit in this one.
Aaron Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.