2013 Week 2 NFL Odds Analysis
We’re all set to get going with the Week 2 odds for NFL this week at Bang the Book, as there are a plethora of games that we are going to be focusing in on that are going to have some huge impacts on the entire season.
If you’re a fan of big time ‘totals’ and high flying action, you’ve come to the right place this week on the Week 2 odds. The average ‘total’ is a whopping 45.3, and that probably shouldn’t be all that surprising know that Week 1 set the record for the most passing touchdowns ever in a single week of NFL football. That said, for as high as we knew the highest Week 1 ‘total’ was last week between the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons, we have one that is even higher this week at 54.5 between the Denver Broncos and the New York Giants. Again, why should we be surprised? The two Manning brothers combined to throw 11 touchdowns last week, including QB Peyton Manning tossing an NFL record seven scores in the opening game of the season against the Baltimore Ravens.
What’s most interesting to us in Week 2 is to see the wicked adjustment from one week to the next for some teams that had either really good or really bad weeks. A few teams jump out on the page right away to us. The Pittsburgh Steelers are the main culprit as a team that looked horrid in Week 1 and have clearly dropped off the face of the earth since then. The boys from the Steel City probably would have been +3 at worst if not for how badly they looked at home against the Tennessee Titans. It took almost 59 minutes for the Steelers to score their first offensive points in that game, and it was truthfully never a duel that they looked like they were going to win. The adjustment was huge, as Pittsburgh is now +6.5 against the Cincinnati Bengals on the road in Week 2.
The Philadelphia Eagles were one of the biggest winners of the week. They went up 33-7 when they were playing at their high-octane offense against the Washington Redskins on Monday Night Football. Obviously, the oddsmakers remember that more than the fact that they nearly coughed up that lead in the second half. Philly could have conceivably been an underdog in this game if the Head Coach Chip Kelly offense went badly in the first game, but instead in Week 2, the Eagles are flying high as 6.5-point favorites against the San Diego Chargers. San Diego is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games playing on a short week, so that could be a huge factor as well.
One team that we think got a huge boost was Peyton’s Broncos. They were always going to be favored against the Giants in Week 2, but to be favored by 4.5-points is a real testament to just how good the oddsmakers really think this team is. Interestingly enough, we don’t really feel like the Baltimore Ravens, who were clocked in that game against Denver, were punished by the oddsmakers. They’re favored by 6.5 over the Cleveland Browns, who we suppose in their own right, looked lousy against the Miami Dolphins.
In that Baltimore/Cleveland game, keep an eye on the ‘under’. Five straight in this series have failed to reach the ‘total’.
Speaking of the Fins, they’re the subject of another interesting clash against the Indianapolis Colts. QB Andrew Luck and company almost blew up Survivor Pools all over the country last week when they were nearly toppled by the Oakland Raiders. Now, the confidence in Indy is very low, as the team is only -3 against the Dolphins.
The other team that nearly crushed Survivor Pools was the New England Patriots. They were trailing the Buffalo Bills for a good chunk of the second half before winning on the second to last play of the game on a field goal. New England comes home for its opener against the New York Jets on Thursday Night Football, and it is the biggest favorite on the board for the second straight week at -13.
The number of 6.5 is the most popular number on the board in Week 2. The Ravens (vs. Cleveland), the Atlanta Falcons (vs. St. Louis Rams), the Green Bay Packers (vs. Washington Redskins), the Chicago Bears (vs. Minnesota Vikings), the Bengals (vs. Pittsburgh), and the Eagles (vs. San Diego) are all giving 7.5. The Houston Texans are -8.5 against the Tennessee Titans, while the Oakland Raiders are -5.5 against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Texans have covered and won three of the last four in this series, but the one loss came in Week 17 two years ago when they were prepping for the playoffs and weren’t caring about winning that game.
The only game of the week that is lined closer than a field goal is the clash between the Arizona Cardinals and Detroit Lions is set at a pick ‘em. Five games feature the ever-popular point spread of a field goal. The Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints are favored on the road against the Buffalo Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers respectively. Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs, Indianapolis Colts, and Seattle Seahawks are -3 at home against the Dallas Cowboys, Miami Dolphins, and San Francisco 49ers.
That game between the Seahawks and the 49ers is clearly going to be one of the best games of the whole year. The last time that we saw Seattle take on the Niners at CenturyLink Field, the 49ers were absolutely trashed. Now, they are going to be looking for some revenge, as they want to get their revenge. The lead in the NFC West is going to be on the line, and it’s quite possible that the winner of that game is going to ultimately be the team that becomes one of the favorites on the odds to win the Super Bowl.
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