Home field advantage is generally worth about 30 cents in baseball, and that 30 cents is proving to be costly for a number of teams on the MLB betting lines this year. Check out the ones that are in the worst shape at the moment, as the 2013 season surpasses the quarter pole.
(Road record and amount of profit based upon a $100 bet listed in parentheses)
Miami Marlins (7-18, -$882) – You’re not going to find a more embarrassing team than this in baseball. About the only good thing that we can say for Miami’s 7-18 record at home is that it is better than the team’s 6-16 record on the road. The Fish rank dead last by a country mile in the game in run production (2.66 runs per game), team batting average (.222), team OPS (.599), and total home runs hit (23). It just doesn’t get any worse than that. It happens to be that the pitching on this team has been awfully average, and for a team that might end up being the worst in MLB history, doing something to the tune of average is remarkable. Eventually, there is going to be some good value on the Marlins, but it’s so discouraging to bet on a team that is barely winning a quarter of its games.
New York Mets (9-15, -$871) – The Mets have lost six straight games at home, including three to the Cincinnati Reds to start off Memorial Day week. The team has been a disaster on just about all accounts here at Citi Field, as in those games, it has averaged scoring just 2.33 runs per game, and it has allowed an average of 6.0 runs per game. The last time the club scored more than four runs in a game at home was back on April 24th, and since that point, the team has been shut out just as many times as it has scored four runs. Until the lineup gets a little bit better, New York is going to continue to lose games at home and lose them in bunches.
Los Angeles Dodgers (11-13, -$759) – To their credit, the Dodgers haven’t played all that poorly at home this season. They’re only two-games below .500, and had they played some better ball on the road at times, they wouldn’t be known as one of the biggest train wrecks in the game. However, it’s easy to see how all of these losses as favorites are adding up. The Dodgers have been favored in every single home game that they have played this year, save for a May 13th date with RHP Jordan Zimmerman and the Washington Nationals. In this equation as well, come three straight losses to the San Diego Padres from back in the middle of April, and in those games, the team was beaten as -157, -174, and -239 favorites, and that’s the way to totally ruin a season in just a few days.
Houston Astros (8-17, -$615) – The Astros have actually gotten up to a level of respectability at home over the course of the last few weeks, and that’s why they are checking in at the bottom of this list this week instead of at the top. Houston took two out of three from the Kansas City Royals this week, and it is now 4-6 in its last 10 games played at Minute Maid Park. That sounds awfully bad when you’re proud of it, but the truth of the matter is that the club is +$116 in those games in spite of that dreadful mark. That’s why it’s tough to bet against the Astros as home, as tempting as it might be to do most nights, and it is certainly a lot more palatable to be doing that than it is to lay -200, or even -300 or -350 when this team is on the road.
Toronto Blue Jays (11-13, -$537) – Toronto is another one of these teams that is starting to take some steps in the right direction. Don’t expect to see the Jays on this list for all that much longer. The team has only played five home games since May 5th, and it is 5-1 in its last six played at Rogers Centre. In that stretch, the offense is really coming to play, averaging 7.50 runs per game. That’s what it’s going to take with a pitching staff that has been awfully suspect at times this season to win games, especially in the rough and tumble AL East. Better times are ahead for the Blue Jays for sure.
Aaron Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.