Clay Buchholz (2-4, 4.93 ERA) and Wandy Rodriguez (1-2, 3.86 ERA) are on the hill in the last of a three-game series between the Boston Red Sox (19-21) and the Texas Rangers (17-23) at Fenway Park. The Rangers won the last game 2-1 and the series is currently tied 1-1. Action begins at 7:10 p.m. ET on Thursday, May. 21 and can be seen on FSN-SW and NESN.
Buchholz is 1-4 with a 4.46 ERA in his appearances against the Rangers, and goes up against a below-average Texas offense which is batting just .237 this season. Pablo Sandoval (.270, 17 Rs, 5 HRs, 16 RBIs) went 1 for 3 yesterday. Rodriguez went 4.2 innings, surrendering five runs, striking out two and walking one in an 8-3 defeat to the Indians in his last outing. Adrian Beltre (.264, 21 Rs, 5 HRs, 15 RBIs, 1 SB) has been successful at the plate, going 2 for 4 yesterday with one run.
Boston is a -170 favorite against Texas and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at nine runs. The Red Sox have an overall money line of -338 and a record as the favorite of 10-11. Boston is unbeaten as the favorite and has a 6-4 SU record in its last ten outings. The Red Sox have seen a decline in scoring as of late, averaging 2.7 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 4.0 runs per game. Boston leads the whole AL in walks, earning an average of 3.6 per game.
In games where it is the underdog, Texas has a 15-20 record and an overall money line of -220.
The Red Sox have a 5-6 record against left-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Rodriguez takes the mound. Buchholz (RHP) will be on the hill against the Rangers, who have an 11-14 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – BOS, O/U – Over
The Rangers won their last game by a one-run margin. In games decided by one run, the Red Sox are 8-5. The Rangers are 6-5 in close games this season.
When the Red Sox play into extra innings, they have a 2-1 record. The Rangers are 2-2 when their games exceed nine innings.
The Rangers are coming off of a weak pitching game where they recorded six strikeouts. The Red Sox have a record of 12-11 when opponents’ pitchers have that many strikeouts or fewer.
When they outhit their opponents, the Rangers are 12-3. The Red Sox have a 15-2 record when outhitting opponents.
Both falling in the bottom half of the league based on total runs this season, Boston ranks 19th with 156 runs and Texas is 16th with 163.
Ranking 12th, Texas is in the top half of the league in walks, notching 128 this season. Boston ranks in the top five at second with 145.
When the Red Sox hit at least one home run, they are 14-12, well-matched with the Rangers who are 13-10 when hitting one or more homers.
Aaron Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.