Expert MLB Baseball Pick: Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Indians

white sox indians mlb picksJohn Danks (2-3, 4.66 ERA) and Danny Salazar (4-1, 4.06 ERA) start in the last of a four-game series between the Chicago White Sox (18-19) and the Cleveland Indians (16-23) at U.S. Cellular Field. The Indians won the last game 4-3 and Cleveland leads the series 2-1. Action begins at 8:10 p.m. ET on Thursday, May. 21 and can be seen on STO and CSN-CHI.

Danks is 5-12 with a 5.16 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and 98 strikeouts against the Indians. Jose Abreu (.293, 20 Rs, 6 HRs, 22 RBIs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one run. Against the White Sox, Salazar is 2-1 with a 5.09 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, and 33 strikeouts. Michael Brantley (.331, 20 Rs, 4 HRs, 25 RBIs, 6 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with two RBIs.

Cleveland is a slim -109 favorite over Chicago. The Over/Under (O/U) is sitting at eight runs for this matchup. The White Sox have an overall money line of -98 and a record as the underdog of 8-11. Chicago has gone 4-1 in its last 10 as underdog. The White Sox have seen an uptick in scoring as of late, averaging 4.8 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 3.8 runs per game.

In the other locker room, Cleveland is coming in with an overall money line of -1,217 and a disappointing record of 9-14as the favorite. They have played poorly as the favorite with a 4-11 record against AL Central rivals, and a 5-5 record SU. Cleveland is excellent at drawing walks with 3.2 per road game, ranking fifth in the AL. Cleveland’s pitching staff is one of the top in the AL at pitching on the road, with a 3.75 ERA. The Indians have established a reputation of overwhelming hitters with an AL-best 9.7 strikeouts per game.

The White Sox have a 15-14 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Salazar takes the mound. Danks (LHP) will be on the hill against the Indians, who have a inferior 5-10 record against left-handed starting pitchers.

Predictions: SU Winner – CLE, O/U – Over

Notes

The Indians are struggling at 9-17 in their division, while the White Sox sit at 11-16.

Cleveland has won 40% (6-9) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Chicago has won 58% (7-5) of its games when taking a late lead.

The White Sox managed to give up six walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Indians who are coming in with a 3-2 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.

It looks like the Indians have a slight leg up on the White Sox, as the Indians have won their last two games while the White Sox have lost their last two.

When they outhit their opponents, the Indians are 13-3. The White Sox have a 14-2 record when outhitting opponents.

Ranking 29th in runs, Chicago has earned 138 this season. Cleveland ranks 13th with 167 runs.

Ranking 26th, Chicago is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 94 this season. Cleveland ranks in the top five at third with 142.

The White Sox are 9-7 when they hit at least one home run. The Indians perform similarly when they hit one or more homers with a 13-11 record.

Aaron Ryan

Aaron Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.