Aaron Harang (2-2, 2.51 ERA) takes the mound for the Philadelphia Phillies (9-17) as they go up against Alex Wood (1-1, 4.03 ERA) and the Atlanta Braves (12-13) in the first of a three-game series at Turner Field. The game gets underway at 7:10 p.m. ET on Monday, May. 4 and will air on CSN-PHI and SPSO.
Wood has a 2.14 ERA and a 2-1 record in his career against the Phillies, and is up against a less-than-stellar Philadelphia offense that’s hitting just .221 on the year. Kelly Johnson (.250, 10 Rs, 5 HRs, 13 RBIs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one run, one home run, and two RBIs. In his career against the Braves, Harang is 2-3 with a 3.75 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and 52 strikeouts. Freddy Galvis (.341, 9 Rs, 1 HR, 8 RBIs) went 1 for 3 yesterday.
Atlanta, a -152 favorite, will look to capitalize at home against Philadelphia. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is seven runs. When playing as the favorite, the Braves have a 3-3 record and overall money line at -21. They have an SU record of 8-10 against teams in their division and a 3-3 record when they were the favorite in those games. The Braves have one of the most prolific offenses in the entire NL, averaging 4.2 runs per game. The Braves typically don’t swing at bad pitches, which has led to an impressive 3.4 walks per game. Below average play has been the norm lately for the Atlanta pitchers. The Braves have given up an average of 6.0 runs to opponents in their last 10 games, above their season average of 4.8 runs per game.
Moving on to the away team, the Phillies come into this game with a weak win percentage of .318 when playing as the underdog (7-15) and an overall money line of -752. They have played poorly as the underdog as of late. They managed a 2-7 record when playing as the underdog and an SU record of 3-7. The Phillies average just 6.7 strikeouts per game, one of the lowest marks in the NL.
In their previous three games this season, the Phillies have a 2-1 record. This game will feature Harang (RHP) on the mound against the Braves, who have a 9-12 record when they take on a right-handed starter.
Predictions: SU Winner – ATL, O/U – Under
The Phillies currently sit below .500 against the NL East Division at 7-12, and the Braves have an 8-10 record.
When leading after 7 innings, Philadelphia is 7-8, while Atlanta is 5-10.
The Braves are coming off of a hot pitching game where they recorded 11 strikeouts. The Phillies have a record of 1-3 when they are struck out that many times or more.
When they are outhit, the Phillies are 3-15. The Braves have a 2-9 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 26th in home runs, Philadelphia has hit 14 this season. Atlanta ranks 13th with 21 home runs.
Ranking 15th, Philadelphia is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 7.16 per game. Atlanta ranks in the top 10 at ninth with 8.08.
Ranking 30th, Philadelphia is at the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.600). Atlanta ranks in the top half at 15th with an OPS of .705.
When the Phillies allow at least one home run, they are 5-10. When the Braves allow one or more homers, they have a 3-9 record.
Aaron Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.