Odrisamer Despaigne (2-0, 2.95 ERA) starts for the San Diego Padres (15-14) as they square off against Rubby De La Rosa (2-2, 5.40 ERA) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (12-14) in the first of a four-game series at Chase Field. Action begins at 9:40 p.m. ET on Thursday, May. 7 and can be seen on FSN-SD and FSN-AZ.
De La Rosa is 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA in his appearances against the Padres, but goes up against a quality San Diego offense which is batting .255 this season. Paul Goldschmidt (.340, 20 Rs, 7 HRs, 24 RBIs, 6 SBs) continued his strong play yesterday, going 2 for 5 with one run, one home run, two RBIs, and one stolen base. Despaigne will be in the rotation for the injured Brandon Morrow and he will make the start on Thursday. He takes on a good Arizona offense that’s batting .261. Yonder Alonso (.341, 11 Rs, 1 HR, 10 RBIs, 2 SBs) has been successful at the plate, going 2 for 4 yesterday with two runs and one RBI.
San Diego is a narrow -107 favorite over Arizona. According to the oddsmakers, the Over/Under (O/U) is currently nine runs. The Diamondbacks have recorded an overall money line of -250 and have shown a weak performance as an underdog this season with a record of 6-11. Arizona has gone winless (0-6) as the underdog and 3-7 SU in its last 10 outings. The Diamondbacks have seen an uptick in scoring against teams inside their division, averaging 4.7 runs per game. They average 4.2 runs per game on the season. Arizona is one of the best in the MLB in terms of steals, swiping 24 bases.
Over in the other dugout, in contrast to a worrisome overall money line (-116), San Diego has an impressive 9-6 record when playing as the favorite. They are 9-3 as the favorite against NL West rivals, and 12-10 SU. The Padres allow 4.5 runs per game, but have damaged those numbers in the past 10 games, allowing 6.1 runs per game during that span.
The Padres lead the season series, 2-1. The Diamondbacks have a 7-10 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Morrow takes the mound. De La Rosa (RHP) will be on the hill against the Padres, who have an 8-11 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – SD, O/U – Over
The Diamondbacks are 11-10 against their divisional rivals, while the Padres are 13-10 against their division.
When the Diamondbacks play into extra innings, they have a 2-1 record. The Padres are 0-2 when their games exceed nine innings.
The Padres are coming into this game after allowing one walk during their last outing. The Diamondbacks have a 1-5 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they outhit their opponents, the Diamondbacks are 8-2. The Padres have an 11-1 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 14th, Arizona is in the top half of the league in runs, scoring 118 this season. San Diego ranks in the top five at second with 140.
Ranking 21st, San Diego is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 71 this season. Arizona ranks in the bottom half at 18th with 79.
The Diamondbacks are 10-3 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Padres are 9-6 when they hit at least one homer.
Aaron Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.