A couple of National League games will be on MLB Network on Tuesday night with regional coverage of Miami at Atlanta and San Francisco at Philadelphia.
Matchup: Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves
Date/Time: July 22, 7:05 p.m. ET
TV: MLB Network
MLB Betting Odds From 5Dimes Sportsbook
Probable Starters: MIA: Jacob Turner (2-6, 6.22) v. ATL: Mike Minor (3-5, 4.86)
Moneyline: Atlanta -181
Total: 7.5 -120/100
The Marlins managed to snag Game 1 of the series on Monday night with an extra-inning triumph over the Braves. The Braves loss, coupled with a Nationals win, put the Braves in second place by a full game, though they trailed by percentage points entering play on Monday. The Marlins won their second straight and improved to 18-28 on the road. The Marlins improved to 2-2 since the All-Star Break, while the Braves fell to 2-2.
After making eight appearances out of the bullpen, Turner returns to the rotation for his first start since June 5. Turner didn’t fare much better in relief with a 5.74 ERA to go with his 6.38 ERA as a starter. This will be Turner’s sixth career start against the Braves. In the previous five starts, Turner is 1-3 with a 4.40 ERA. He has allowed 19 runs, 14 earned, in 28.2 innings. Earlier this season, Turner allowed five runs, four earned, on seven hits over five innings against the Braves. Despite the ugly numbers, the Marlins are 4-5 in Turner’s nine starts.
Big things were expected from Mike Minor, but he has fallen well short of expectations this season. After a breakout season in 2013 with a 13-9 record and a solid 3.21 ERA, Minor experienced some shoulder discomfort in Spring Training following an offseason surgery and has never really gotten on track. Location has been the biggest problem for Minor, as opposing batters have hit 14 home runs in just 83.1 innings, after Minor gave up just 22 in 204.2 innings last season. Command has been a problem, evidenced by a .291 batting average against and a line drive rate against of nearly 26 percent. Minor is 3-4 in 13 career starts against the Marlins with a 4.52 ERA. He will be facing them for the first time this season. The Braves are 7-7 in Minor’s 14 starts.
The Marlins are 14-9 against left-handed starters this season and the Braves are 45-36 against right-handed starters. The season series is now tied at 5-5 after the Marlins won the series opener on Monday night.
The Braves have a very good chance of winning the game, but that’s a big price to pay on Minor, who has been inconsistent for most of the season and has posted a 6.02 ERA over his last 46.1 innings of work. The Braves are scoring just 3.79 runs per game at home this season and betting on their offense and an inconsistent pitcher at a big price doesn’t seem very advantageous to bettors.
Matchup: San Francisco at Philadelphia
Date/Time: July 22, 7:10 p.m. ET
TV: MLB Network
MLB Betting Odds From 5Dimes Sportsbook
Probable Starters: SF: Yusmeiro Petit (3-3, 3.86) v. Roberto Hernandez (4-8, 4.22)
Moneyline: San Francisco -116
Total: 8.5 100/-120
The Giants and Dodgers were both victorious on Monday night to remain in a tie atop the two-horse race in the National League West. The Giants will have the opportunity to secure at least a split in this four-game series at Citizens Bank Park with Yusmeiro Petit on the mound against Roberto Hernandez. The Giants fell off the pace with a terrible June, going just 10-16 and letting the Dodgers, who went 18-10, back into the race. The Giants are now 3-1 post All-Star Break, while the Phillies fell to 1-3.
Petit, best remembered for his complete game one-hitter against Arizona, in which he lost a perfect game with two outs in the ninth, will be making his sixth start of the 2014 campaign. It will be Petit’s first start since May 31 as he takes over for Matt Cain, who is on the disabled list. Petit is 3-3 with a respectable 3.86 ERA in 26 total appearances. As a starter this season, Petit has a 5.81 ERA with 17 earned runs allowed in 26.1 innings. Petit has big splits this season, as lefties are batting .286/.353/.514 compared to a .206/.234/.284 slash from righties. Left-handed hitters for the Phillies are 27th in OPS with a .669 mark against righties. Petit will be facing the Phillies for the sixth time, but it will be just his second career start. He threw six shutout innings in that lone start, but it was back in 2009, the last time he faced the Phillies. The Giants are 2-3 in Petit’s five starts.
Roberto Hernandez has seen his control problems emerge once again this season with 70 strikeouts and 51 walks in 100.1 innings. This will be Hernandez’s 18th start on the year to go along with three relief appearances. Hernandez pitched well in his last start prior to the All-Star Break with eight innings of one-run ball against the Brewers, but it’s hard to imagine the 12-day gap between starts benefitting someone with his mechanical problems. This will be Hernandez’s third career start against the Giants and he’s 0-1 with a 5.06 ERA in the two previous outings. He gave up three runs on eight hits in 4.2 innings in a start against the Giants last season. The Phillies are 7-10 in Hernandez’s 17 starts this season.
Pick: San Francisco
Petit has had his problems away from the friendly confines of AT&T Park and fly ball pitchers tend to struggle in the hitter-happy conditions at Citizens Bank Park, but the Phillies are a sinking ship in a cloud of trade rumors and frustration. Since ending April at 13-13, the Phillies have lost 13 more than they’ve won and changes are likely coming before the trade deadline. Hernandez’s inconsistencies are exacerbated by the long time in between starts and the Giants are playing some pretty good ball right now.
Adam Burke is a freelance writer and amateur handicapper with a knack for finding value through matchup analysis and a deep understanding of the sports betting market. His main area of expertise is baseball, with a background in sabermetrics and advanced statistics. He is the host of The Gridiron Gambling Report and our college football and college basketball BangTheBook.com podcasts on the BlogTalkRadio Network.