MLB Picks: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals

diamondbacks nationals mlb picksIn the second of a three-game series between the Arizona Diamondbacks (14-17) and the Washington Nationals (14-17) at Chase Field, Rubby De La Rosa (3-2, 4.38 ERA) and Stephen Strasburg (2-3, 4.73 ERA) take the mound. The Nationals won the last game 11-1, extending a five-game winning streak. The game gets underway at 9:40 p.m. ET on Tuesday, May. 12 and will air on MASN2 and FSN-AZ.

In his most recent outing, De La Rosa pitched 7.0 innings, allowing zero runs, striking out seven and walking two in an 11-0 victory over the Padres. In his career against the Diamondbacks, Strasburg is 3-1 with a 2.25 ERA. He meets a solid Arizona offense that’s batting .261. Denard Span (.292, 15 Rs, 3 HRs, 9 RBIs, 1 SB) has been hitting the ball well, going 2 for 5 yesterday with two runs, one home run, and two RBIs.

Arizona is a +129 underdog in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at eight runs. The Diamondbacks perform poorly as an underdog with an 8-12 record and have an overall money line of -39. The Diamondbacks have one of the most prolific home offenses in the entire NL, averaging 4.7 runs per game. The Diamondbacks rank third in the NL in hits with 9.2 per game. The Diamondbacks are a nightmare for opponents on the bases with 27 steals, one of the highest totals in baseball.

On the other side, the Nationals have a record of 14-11 when they are favored and are -217 overall with the money line. They have played at the top of their game when rated as favorite recently. They managed a 7-1 record when playing as the favorite and an SU record of 8-2. The Nationals average 3.2 walks per road game, making them one of the most disciplined teams in the NL when they travel. The last 10 games have really brought the best out of the Washington pitchers. They’ve allowed 2.9 runs per game during that span, which is lower than their season average of 4.2.

The only other game between the two teams went Washington’s way. The Diamondbacks will take on a right-hander (Strasburg) in this game and have a 10-12 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. The right-handed De La Rosa will take the mound against the Nationals, who have an 11-13 record against righty starters this season.

Predictions: SU Winner – WSH, O/U – Over

Notes

The Nationals won their last game by a 10-run margin. In games decided by a margin of 10 runs or more, the Diamondbacks are 1-1. The Nationals are 1-0 in blowouts this season.

When the Nationals play into extra innings, they have a 2-1 record. The Diamondbacks are 2-2 when their games exceed nine innings.

The Nationals are coming into this game after allowing two walks during their last outing. The Diamondbacks have a 4-10 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.

When they outhit their opponents, the Diamondbacks are 9-2. The Nationals have a 13-1 record when outhitting opponents.

Ranking 11th in runs, Arizona has earned 141 this season. Washington ranks seventh with 152 runs.

Ranking 17th, Arizona is in the bottom half of the league in walks, notching 92 this season. Washington ranks in the top 10 at 10th with 107.

The Diamondbacks are 12-5 when they hit at least one home run. The Nationals perform similarly when they hit one or more homers with a 13-6 record.

Aaron Ryan

Aaron Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.