The Nuggets easily got past the Lakers 119-101 on Wednesday. Kenneth Faried fueled the Nuggets, recording 29 points and 11 rebounds to notch his 25th double-double this season. The Mavericks, meanwhile, are coming off a 107-104 win over the Suns on Wednesday. Tyson Chandler had a good game, recording 12 points and 23 rebounds to claim his 30th double-double of the season.
The two teams have split their matchups this season. The Mavericks had the upper hand in the most recent game, a 97-89 win. Dirk Nowitzki was the game’s leading scorer with 25 points.
The odds are even for this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is unavailable at the moment. The Nuggets enter the game with records of 29-49 Straight Up (SU) and 33-42-3 Against The Spread (ATS). They have a record of 18-30 SU and 20-26-2 ATS versus the Western Conference. Denver is known to control the offensive glass, where they rack up an impressive 12.1 offensive rebounds per game.
On the other side, Dallas has a SU record of 47-31 and an ATS record of 32-43-3. Most recently, Dallas is a meager 2-8 ATS over the last 10 games. The Mavericks rank third in the league in scoring, averaging 104.6 points per game. Dallas makes opponents pay for turning the ball over, ranking second in points off turnovers with an average of 19.4 per game. Dallas may be taking trips to the free throw line early and often with the Nuggets averaging a league-high 22.8 fouls per game.
Dallas beat Denver in their most recent meeting this season, but the Nuggets still lead the head-to-head record, 6-4 SU, over the last 10 matchups. However, the Mavericks lead the matchup ATS with a record of 5-4-1. When it comes to field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers, Denver and Dallas each held the edge in all three of these categories twice in the last 10 meetings.
Predictions: SU Winner – DEN, ATS Winner – DEN
Denver puts up an average of 100.3 points per game (ranked 15th). Dallas ranks 23rd in points allowed per game with 101.7.
Dallas ranks seventh in points allowed per road game (100.9 PPG), while Denver ranks 11th in points per home game with 102.7.
The Denver Nuggets won their last game by 18 points. In games decided by a margin of 18 points or more, the Dallas Mavericks are 14-6. Denver is 8-10 in blowouts this season.
When allowing fewer than 100 points, the Nuggets are 16-10 on the season. When the Mavericks score fewer than 100, they are an underachieving 8-18.
When allowing 100 or more points in a game, the Nuggets are just 13-39 this season. Dallas is a stellar 39-13 when it hits the century mark.
The Nuggets have an offensive rating of 100.8 (ranked 22nd). The Mavericks rank 19th for their defensive rating of 103.6.
The Denver Nuggets average 99.5 possessions per game and 1.008 points per possession, while the Dallas Mavericks earn fewer possessions (98.2) but more points per possession (1.065).
The Dallas Mavericks have one of the best effective field goal percentages this season, ranking sixth in the league with an EFF% of 51.3%. When their opponents record a similar or higher EFF%, the Denver Nuggets have a subpar 3-29 record.
Denver makes an average of 21.6 assists per game (ranked 16th). Dallas ranks higher in assists with 22.3 (ranked eighth).
The Denver Nuggets average 4.6 blocks per game for a rank of 14th. The Dallas Mavericks rank lower (21st), earning 4.4 blocks each game.
The Denver Nuggets rank third in offensive rebounding, while the Dallas Mavericks rank 24th in defensive rebounding.
The Dallas Mavericks average 8.1 steals per game (ranked ninth). The Denver Nuggets have an underachieving 7-30 record when they allow at least 8 steals.
Aaron Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.