J.A. Happ (3-1, 3.29 ERA) and Clay Buchholz (2-4, 5.73 ERA) are on the hill in the second of a four-game series between the Seattle Mariners (15-19) and the Boston Red Sox (17-18) at Safeco Field. The Red Sox won the last game 2-1 and Boston leads the series 1-0. Action begins at 10:10 p.m. ET on Friday, May. 15 and can be seen on NESN and ROOT-NW.
Happ is 3-3 with a 4.60 ERA in his appearances against the Red Sox, but goes up against a below-average Boston offense which is batting just .232 this season. Nelson Cruz (.361, 24 Rs, 15 HRs, 29 RBIs, 1 SB) had another good game yesterday, going 3 for 3 with one run. When pitching against the Mariners, Buchholz is 2-1 with a 3.71 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 23 strikeouts. Hanley Ramirez (.284, 20 Rs, 10 HRs, 22 RBIs, 1 SB) has been successful at the plate for the Red Sox, going 4 for 5 yesterday.
Seattle is a -119 favorite against Boston and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at seven runs. The Mariners have an overall money line of -679 and a record as the favorite of 12-12. Opposing offenses that come to Safeco Field have been stifled by the Mariners, who have a team ERA of only 2.87 at home. The Mariners are the fifth-best team in the AL at limiting hits during home games, allowing only 7.6 hits per game to their opponents this season.
In games where it is the underdog, Boston has a 7-7 record and an overall money line of -493. Offensively, the Red Sox have really sputtered in the last 10 games. They have decreased their season average of 4.2 runs per game by averaging 2.7 during that stretch. Boston is excellent at drawing walks with an AL-best 3.8 per game. The Red Sox have established a reputation of overwhelming hitters with an AL-best 7.5 strikeouts per road game, making them one of the top five teams in the league.
The Red Sox have the edge in the season series, 1-0. The Mariners have a 12-13 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Buchholz takes the mound. Happ (LHP) will be on the hill against the Red Sox, who have a 4-4 record against left-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – SEA, O/U – Over
The Red Sox won their last game by a one-run margin. In games decided by one run, the Mariners are 8-8. The Red Sox are 7-3 in close games this season.
When the Red Sox play into extra innings, they have a 2-1 record. The Mariners are 3-3 when their games exceed nine innings.
The Boston batters brought in a solid 10 hits last game. Seattle has a record of 5-6 when their opponents get that many hits or more.
When they are outhit, the Red Sox are 4-18. The Mariners have a 6-11 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking ninth in home runs, Boston has hit 36 this season. Seattle ranks fourth with 43 home runs.
Ranking 12th, Boston is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 7.91 per game. Seattle ranks in the top 10 at 10th with 8.21.
Ranking 24th, Boston is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.680). Seattle ranks in the top half at 14th with an OPS of .711.
When the Red Sox allow at least one home run, they are 6-17, well-matched with the Mariners who are 7-15 when allowing at least one homer.
Aaron Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.